Projections: a thriller is waiting under the lights of Richmond

Publisher’s note: The projected finish on Saturday was updated after Friday practice and qualification sessions.

Prepare for a Saturday force test under the lights of the historic Richmond Raceway (7:30 p.m., USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, Siriusxm Nascar Radio, NBC Sports App). The race of the Nascar Cup Series of this weekend is sure to have a lot of action with two weekends before the grid of 16 title hopes is fixed.

If the story holds, expect chaos in the closing towers. The last eight races of Richmond have seen the driver lead the most short towers – but in 2025, this same statistics delivered a clean scanning of victories on short tracks. Add to the fact that the last three races in Richmond have all had warnings in the last 10 laps, each setting up a pass for victory, and you have the recipe for a finish that could rewrite the image of the playoffs.

Related: Richmond timetable | Ranking of the series of cups

One thing we know is that Joe Gibbs Racing will probably give the pace. The metric of Racing Insights in Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell as pillars of the first three – and for a good reason. With 10 victories in the last 18 Richmond races, JGR ranks among an elite of some teams in the history of the track. Hamlin has six top two in its last eight departures from Richmond. Bell is still looking for his first victory in the oval of 0.75 mile, but only finished outside the top 10 twice in nine attempts. Combine this with the high short track form of JGR in 2025, and it is clear that they are ready to control the night.

We cannot forget the man who runs the series in pole prices so far. Although Chase Briscoe’s career numbers in Richmond do not jump from the page, there is still something to say about the way the Hosier worked better with team n ° 19 on the tracks to which he had trouble in the past. Without forgetting, he is the only pilot to finish the top 10 of each short-stage race this year, and a few weeks ago, he led 81 laps at Iowa.

With a trio Hendrick Motorsports from Chase Elliott, William Byron and Kyle Larson planned to end in the first five, all the panels indicate a heavyweight fight at the top. However, there are several candidates to consider joining the winning club if chaos strikes again in the last moments.

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Other drivers to monitor

Alex Bowman: Only three pilots won in their 350th Cup Series series, and this former winner of Richmond has a chance to do four and lock all the Hendrick teams in the playoffs. The latest Bowman starts on the track can paint a different image, but it has an average finish of 9.3 in the last nine races this year – the best full -time drivers.

Ty Gibbs: Similar to Bowman, Gibbs is the only man in his organization without victory. He only caught one top-10 in five departures from Richmond, but the equipment in which he is made of him a threat to unravel. The third year driver also aims to make history – no winner for the first time has entered Victory Lane in Richmond from Kasey Kahne in 2005.

Brad Keselowski: The RFK pilot / co -owner has flirted with the playoffs of the playoffs in recent weeks, with six 11th or better finishes in the last eight races. Richmond is a bastion – two victories, 1,280 laps, the top 10 in half of its 30 departures and a solid average finish of 12.1 there.

Austin Dillon: Another driver who could turn the grid of the playoffs on his head, Dillon enters as a defending winner and has seven top 10 in Richmond. The main thing with Dillon, however, is that three of his five serial victories of cuts occurred on the last two tracks of the regular season, which makes him a candidate for black horses this week and the next.

Racing Insights projections for the cook out 400

The advanced statistical formula of Racing Insights incorporates the current track, the type of track, recent performance, team data and Pit bite data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on the day of the race with training and qualifiers taken into account.