Projecting Roki Sasaki to the Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays

The Roki Sasaki saga is coming to a head as its 45-day release window expires soon. One of the most talented young pitchers in the world will make a decision in the coming days on where he will begin his MLB career.

Sasaki was dominant in his Japanese career for the Chiba Lotte Marines with a 2.02 ERA and a triple-digit fastball. His assignment window closes next week, so he must come to terms with an MLB club before then or return to Japan. Every MLB team would love to have him, but he would choose between the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays.

He’s widely considered a starter at the forefront of the rotation, and rare pitchers like this will fit any team. Here’s what each of his finalists would look like if they added him to their pitching staff.

Sasaki on the Dodgers

Since it was announced that Sasaki was joining the MLB, the Dodgers have been the presumed favorites to secure his services. Two years ago at the World Baseball Classic, he formed a three-ace rotation for Samurai Japan with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Now the three of them could play together in Los Angeles.

When a Japanese pitcher comes to the MLB, he has to acclimate to a different usage. In Japan, all teams use six-player rotations with one day off each week, so starters take the ball once a week and often average more innings per start. In MLB, most teams have five-man rotations and there are fewer days off, but starters aren’t expected to go deep into games.

For Sasaki, joining a rotation with two other Japanese pitchers would make his transition easier because the Dodgers have built their team around a six-man rotation. Even though Ohtani has been in the MLB for seven years, he has always needed five days off from pitching while also serving as a designated hitter. Yamamoto also never had less than five days off.

The rest of their staff also enjoys a six-person rotation, as the team prioritizes quality over sustainability. The Dodgers signed Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million contract earlier this winter. He only topped 130 innings twice in his nine-year career, and he won the Cy Young Award both times. Tyler Glasnow has also had a myriad of health issues. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are vying for the final two rotation spots – they would fight for just one of them if Sasaki signed – and both missed the entire 2024 season. Bobby Miller, Michael Grove and Landon Knack are additional rotation possibilities.

The downside to a six-man rotation is that it’s difficult to find five viable starters, let alone six. The Dodgers have the most talented team in the league, and bringing in Sasaki would give them a formidable starter on most days.

Sasaki on the Padres

Contrary to popular belief, the Padres employ even more experienced pitchers in Japan than the Dodgers. Yu Darvish is the most well-known Japanese player on their roster. The 38-year-old is the all-time leader among Japanese pitchers in WAR (33.4), strikeouts (2,007) and All-Star Game appearances (five). He is joined on the active roster by left-handed reliever Yuki Matsui, who signed with San Diego last year.

Closer Robert Suarez is originally from Venezuela, but he pitched in Japan from 2016 to 2021. Relievers JB Wendelken and Jose Espada played in Japan last season and signed minor league contracts with the Padres this winter, although they are far from leaving the team. of spring training. Nonetheless, San Diego has been one of the most aggressive clubs in MLB in recruiting players from Asian leagues, regardless of position or country of origin.

Unlike the Dodgers, the Padres seem likely to use a five-man rotation. It will be led by Dylan Cease and Michael King, giving them an excellent one-two punch. Darvish is the third starter, although his speed and strikeout rate have declined with age and he missed three months last season with neck, groin and elbow soreness, in addition to a personal matter that took him away from the team.

The last two places in the rotation are uncertain. Knuckleballer Matt Waldron started 26 games last year with a 4.91 ERA. He will compete with Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez, who were both acquired from the New York Yankees last offseason in the Juan Soto trade. Vásquez started 20 games with a 4.87 ERA and Brito posted a 4.12 ERA as a long reliever.

The Padres reached the playoffs last year with a 93-69 record, but rotation depth is a significant concern heading into the 2025 campaign. Beyond Cease and King, they haven’t not many question marks. Signing Sasaki would go a long way toward getting them back in October.

Sasaki on the Blue Jays

The Blue Jays were more of a surprise finalist for Sasaki’s services than the Dodgers or Padres. For one, Toronto is a longer flight from Japan than Southern California, and for another, they have no track record of recruiting Japanese players. They weren’t a playoff team last season either, finishing last in the AL East at 74-88.

Toronto has a player on its roster who signed from Japan. Right-hander Yariel Rodríguez pitched in Japan from 2020-22 after six years in his native Cuba, then signed with the Blue Jays last offseason.

Despite their poor record, the Blue Jays have a more established rotation than the Dodgers or Padres, although there is always room for someone as talented as Sasaki. In addition to Rodríguez, they will deploy a rotation including Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Bowden Francis and Kevin Gausman.

If they secure Sasaki’s services, they’ll likely move to a six-man rotation, but the downside to that strategy is one less reliever on the active roster. This further taxes their relief corps, which was a major problem for the Blue Jays last season when their 4.82 ERA in the bullpen was second-worst in MLB. They added Yimi García, Jeff Hoffman and Nick Sandlin this offseason to solve that problem, and that would only be a minor hindrance compared to the major benefit that adding Sasaki to the team would represent.