Prisco’s 2025 NFL Playoff Picks: Backing Road Underdogs in NFC and AFC Championship Games

Like Washington’s commanders, I warm up over time.

I went 3-0-1 with my ATS picks last week and 3-1 with my straight picks. This brings my season record against the spread to 132-143-7 and my straight record to 184-98-0.

Why did it take so long to turn things around?

On the one hand, I like choosing dogs. And the Dogs didn’t cover as much in the second half of the season. They did it over the weekend. The only favorite that covered was the Kansas City Chiefs with our number, but the late safety made some Texas fans a winner.

So I’m sticking to the plan. I’m going back to the dogs this weekend for the championship games.

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (Fox, stream on fubo)

The Commanders are the surprise team remaining in the final four. They got here by upsetting the top-seeded Lions on the road last week. In this game, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was special. He lit up the Lions defense. But this is a much bigger challenge.

The Eagles, who beat the Rams last week, were strong on defense while acclimating to the Vic Fangio system, which will challenge Daniels. The Eagles play a lot of zone, which could be a good thing since Daniels spreads out man coverage against a blitz. He will be forced to be patient here, which will put more pressure on his offensive line. They need to block defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who is a play destroyer.

Philadelphia’s offense will once again be led by running back Saquon Barkley. He rushed for 2,000 yards this season and put up big numbers in the playoffs. In the two games against the Commanders this season, Barkley has totaled 296 rushing yards and four touchdowns in those games. They couldn’t stop him.

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is dealing with a knee injury suffered last week in the win over the Rams, which could impact his ability to shoot on zone reads. This could change the way Washington defends Barkley.

This matchup will be all about Daniels and his ability to play against Fangio’s defense. Watching Kliff Kingsbury’s calls will be fun to watch. I think Daniels is playing well. In fact, I think the commanders will spring a surprise. Daniels will become the first rookie quarterback to take his team to a Super Bowl.

Take: Commanders 27, Eagles 26

Buffalo Bills against the Kansas City Chiefs (-2)

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, streaming on Paramount+)

It’s Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen. The two quarterbacks have faced each other three times before in the playoffs and Mahomes has won all three. But their stats are close, with Mahomes having eight touchdowns and no picks compared to Allen’s seven and one.

The Chiefs beat the Bills earlier this season, but it’s those playoff failures that hang over this game for the Bills. They’ll spend all week hearing about “13 seconds” and Tyler Bass missing a game-tying field goal in last year’s loss. How do they manage to get by?

This team looks different from previous years. He’s built for the playoffs. They don’t turn it over and Allen is playing his best football, even if his numbers aren’t as gaudy.

Mahomes also hasn’t put up big numbers this year, but he has come into play recently as the offense has gotten healthier. It’s also the playoffs. We know he’ll get the ball to Travis Kelce, who was outstanding last week.

This has to be the focal point of the Bills defense. Both teams want to run the ball, which will be key in this one – even if on paper it looks like a classic Mahomes-Allen battle.

Allen is the better of the two with his legs, which gives the Bills a slight advantage. But Mahomes can move if needed.

The Chiefs have a major advantage playing at home and they also have a psychological advantage in the playoffs. This usually matters. But, like I said, this Bills team is different. Allen is different.

It’s his time. The Bills won’t need to hear any more about “13 seconds” as Allen takes this group to the Super Bowl.

Take: Bills 24, counts 23