The grain of harvested corn is thrown into a grain cart on October 10, 2023 on a farm near Alleron, Illinois.
Joshua A. Bickel / AP
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Joshua A. Bickel / AP
Travis Zook cultivates corn, increases livestock and has a dealer for seeds and agricultural services in northeast Indiana. It illustrates some of the mixed emotions that many farmers have with regard to President Trump.
Like more than 75% of the voters of rural counties and dependent on the farm, the 44 -year -old farmer says he voted for Trump in November. He maintains this decision. “I always think that some of the things may be the right decision for our country,” said Zook, “but maybe not the way he does.”
But Zook also remembers the pain felt in the Trump trade war in 2018, which struck the farmers particularly harshly. “The markets have definitely dropped the last time,” he admits.
In fact, he ended up costing farmers about $ 27 billion in lost agricultural exports. Although Zook says that he appreciates the financial relief that farmers received from Trump during his first mandate – billions of dollars in subsidies to compensate for those of commercial war losses – he is not entirely comfortable with government documents to farmers.
In addition, the moment is not the time for corn producers like him to find himself again by the prices. “There are many things stacked against us right now,” he said. “You know, the flipper of birds is a fear at the moment. If we suddenly kill billions of chickens, there is a large corn consumer who will not be there.”
Trump’s latest trade war has targeted the three main trade partners in the United States: Mexico, Canada and China. China again imposes counter-triggers on American soybeans and corn, two major agricultural exports. Canada, which provides 85% of the American potash (a key fertilizer ingredient), could consider stopping shipping On the other side of the border. Meanwhile, Trump’s deportation thrust could reduce the flow of migrant workers in Mexico, many of which have long been the backbone of American agriculture.
Adding to the pressure on American farmers, the Elon Musk government efficiency team has put an end to payments for essential agricultural programs related to the law on the reduction of inflation of the Biden era and has seriously reduced the funding of the American agency for international development, which bought around $ 2 billion in American agricultural products each year.
Although Trump signed a decree on Thursday reporting prices on Mexico and Canada until next month, people in China – who have the greatest impact on American farmers – remain in place.
In a speech to Congress on Tuesday, Trump insisted that his new trade policies “would be great for the American farmer” even if he admitted that there could be a bit of an adjustment period “.
“Our farmers will have a day in the field right now,” said Trump. He also said that farmers could compensate for any loss by selling more at the national level. “No one can compete with you,” he said with enthusiasm.
Nick Levendofsky, Executive Director of Kansas Farmers Union, urges caution. He reminds farmers that they have already followed this path – during Trump’s first term. “We must be careful. We must be wary,” advises Levendofofsky.
Even temporary prices can cause permanent losses on the markets and disruptions of agricultural supply chains, warns LeVendofsky. For example, although the United States is one of the world’s main producers of soybeans, China has turned to Brazil and Argentina during the previous trade conflict, and the United States has never completely found its levels of war export before the exchange towards China. “When the Trump administration imposes prices on China, China says:” Well, we are not going to buy soy people with you, or we will not buy it “,” explains Levendofsky. “This is the problem – they have alternatives.”
This comes at a time when the prices of basic products and the costs of inputs, including fertilizers, chemicals, fuel, equipment and land, are at historical summits, which makes it even more difficult for farmers. LeVendofsky adds: “Many farmers are in debt right now … and they don’t need more pressure than they have already done.”
According to the international Food Policy Research Institute, Brazil responded to the First Trump trade war by expanding its 35% harvested areas and the United States did not follow the pace. A study from last year, commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association, revealed that in the event of a new trade war, American soy -so -called China could drop by 51.8%, and US corn exports to China could fall by 84.3%. Meanwhile, Brazil and Argentina would probably increase their exports, winning a precious market share.
Tom Barcellos, who has grown for 50 years in the county of Tulare in California, operates a farm of 1,200 acres with 1,400 dairy cows, as well as “citrus (and) pistachios as well as the field crops that we grow to feed cows”. Barcellos, who voted for Trump three times and even met the candidate during the 2016 campaign, says he is “not embarrassed” with his support. “We had very, very good conversations in private on California Water, California Agriculture, things we are looking at here in the Central Valley,” he recalls.
Regarding agricultural work, Barcellos says that he and all the other farmers he knows is completely legal. “People show up and go through all the processes,” he said. “You take care of the people you have taken care of, and you know, they stay and you don’t have a work problem.”
The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the largest general agricultural organization in the United States, urged the congress to solve key problems such as agricultural work and the agricultural bill. Last month, the president of AFBF, Zippy Duvall, warned that the mass expulsion of agricultural workers could lead to a political reaction, with disturbances of hikes of the food supply and prices.
In an interview with NPR, Duvall said that even if he had not communicated directly with Trump about recent developments, he and his staff had the chance to meet the secretary of agriculture Brooke Rollins. This month, Rollins has announced that the administration would publish part of the delayed payments linked to the Act to Reduce Inflation and to another Biden Age, the Investment and Employment Act, which finances agricultural and agricultural projects.
“Until now, in this administration, we have had a very good exhibition, given the time that it took for his named people to be confirmed and in place,” explains Duvall.
He stresses that American farmers generally support the objectives of the White House, but are concerned about the duration and the impact of the challenge they face. “The farmers support the president and what he wants to achieve, but they are worried about the time it will take and how it will affect them,” said Duvall.
Zook, the Indiana farmer, says he is worried, but always has the faith that everything will work. “I’m not big on politics,” he said.
“Whenever someone is elected, they say:” Oh, it’s bad. It will be the end of the country “”, notes Zook. “But we always leave, and I always have a healthy family. I cannot complain. So I suppose anyone who is there, we will survive it.”
