Prices, trade and visas to dominate talks

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Washington and meets President Donald Trump on Thursday, there will be warm hugs and shared laughs. But that’s not all.

Trump and Modi have developed a strong personal relationship over the years, marked by high -level meetings and joint apparitions. This time, they will also hold a joint press briefing, according to the White House.

Since their first meeting in Washington in 2017, their link has grown up by other events, including joint apparitions during massive rallies in Houston and Ahmedabad. Their chemistry stems from the visions of the shared world and politics and a mutual strategic focus on the fight against China, a concern that has also strengthened the broader American-Indian partnership.

Unsurprisingly, Trump has often criticized India, but he never criticized Modi.

And therefore, during Modi visitThe two leaders will probably spend time mapping the next stages of the Strategic Partnership of the United States-India, which is already in the right place.

Modi would have met several members of Trump’s office, as well as American business leaders and members of the American-Indian community.

He can also meet SpaceX and Tesla chief, Elon Musk. Modi, eager to balance the electric vehicle sector booming in India, would be happy if Musk opened a Tesla factory in India.

And yet, the conviviality of Trump-Modi and the exhilarating discourse in strategic partnership can hide a reality that gives to think: during the visit of Modi, the transactional side of the relationship will enter into relief with each leader, in particular Trump, armed a range of requests.

Delhi knows Trump well. Many current ministers of Modi also served during his previous mandate, which overlooked with part of the first Trump administration. This familiarity has been exhibited since the inauguration of Trump last month: Delhi has publicly reported His desire to reduce prices, take over undeniable immigrants undocumented and buy American oil.

He already has lowered A few prices and included 104 undocumented Indians, with the first plane arrival In India last week. These preventive steps aim to prevent Trump from making specific requests from India and reducing the probability of tensions with the new Trump administration.

However, Trump can ask Modify to make additional price discounts, to further remove an American trade deficit from products and services with India which has approached $ 46 billion (37.10 billion sterling pounds) in recent years.

On Wednesday evening, the White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Trump was planning to announce reciprocal prices on other countries before meeting with Modi.

But an obstacle could become an opportunity: Modi can ask Trump to conclude bilateral talks on an economic partnership intended to reduce prices on both sides.

In recent years, Delhi has shown an increasing desire to continue commercial transactions. The Trump administration can prove to be a more disposed interlocutor than the Biden administration, which has imposed heavy environmental conditions and linked to the workforce on new trade agreements.

Trump can also ask Modi to resume more undocumented Indians. Since certain estimates put the number to more than 700,000 – The third group of this type in the United States – It will be a difficult and delicate problem for Delhi to navigate.

Last week, Indian Minister for Foreign Affairs Jaishankar says parliament That the government was working with the United States to ensure that Indian citizens were not mistreated when they were expelled after the reports that they were chained.

Trump can also ask Modi to buy more American oil.

In 2021, India was the superior destination For US oil exports, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made major changes in the world oil markets and has prompted Delhi to speed up cheap oil imports from narrow Russia. The price will determine the amount of oil that India is willing to buy in the United States.

Modi can also come with its own energy ask: Invest in Indian nuclear energy. Delhi is amendment His nuclear responsibility law and has announced a new nuclear energy mission, with the aim of sharpening international interest in fuel.

India aims to meet half of its energy needs through renewable energies by 2030. Asking Trump to invest in a nuclear fuel is equivalent to a joyful potential environment: it is cleaner than fossil fuels , but far from the solar and wind energy which cannot hit the Trump administration as an attractive investment.

Technology will probably also be discussed.

It was a rapidly growing space for bilateral relations in the Biden era, thanks to the 2022 implementation of the Initiative on critical and emerging technologies (ICET), which the two parties consider a new cornerstone for a strategic partnership. Icet is supposed to be supervised directly by the two advisers in national security – to avoid getting bogged down in the bureaucracy – which means that they each have to be invested there.

Modi will probably ask for assurances from Trump and his national security advisor Mike Waltz that they remain attached to this. Since Washington focuses on the fight against China by making India a larger part of the tech global supply chains, they will probably do.

Also on the technological cooperation front, Modi can make an argument for Trump to maintain the H-1B visa regime. These visas for highly qualified foreign workers, strongly criticized by some Influential Trump supportershave been awarded to a large number of Indian technology employees in the United States.

Other countries can also occur during Modi conversations in Washington. Iran could be particularly large.

Delhi joins Tehran to develop a port in the city of Chabahar – which is part of a wider Indian strategy to strengthen connectivity links with Central Asia, via Iran and Afghanistan. But last week, the American administration published a presidential election memorandum Describing Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran, which suggests the abolition of sanctions for renunciation of commercial activities that lead to Chabahar. Modi can request clarity what it means for Delhi.

Trump can also assess Modi’s position on a high priority of foreign policy: put an end to wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Delhi has a strong interest in these wars that end. Modi’s position on the war in Ukraine – calling at the end of the conflict without criticizing Putin or Russia – echoes that of Trump.

The special relationship of India with Russia and close links with Israel can encourage Trump to see if Modi would also like to play a third party mediator. Modi would probably only be comfortable if the parties are receptive to external mediation.

But despite some potentially delicate discussions this week, the two leaders will want to maintain a positive tone.

In this regard, the Indo-Pacific Quad will be exactly what the doctor has ordered.

Trump strongly supports this group which consists of the United States, India, Japan and Australia and focuses on the fight against Beijing.

In his first mandate, Trump raised annual quad meetings at the level of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and raised them at the level of the leaders.

India should organize the Quad and Modi meeting of this year and Modi could invite Trump to Delhi to attend.

Trump would have is not a big fan International travel, but India is a journey that he probably wishes to make – deepen his personal relationship with Modi and advance a bilateral partnership with multiple facets which extends far beyond the transactionalism that will bring the day to Washington this week.

Michael Kugelman is director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute in Washington

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