Prices could worsen the already difficult market for some job seekers

An expanding tariff fight could push the American labor market to miserable.

Michelle Budnick, a documentary filmmaker in New York, fears that her research will become more difficult. The 47 -year -old man has been looking for full -time production work for over two years.

Budnick told Business Insider that the uncertainty created by more steep commercial barriers – and the spectrum of lower consumption expenses – will probably reduce the amount of companies willing to spend in production.

“It’s like pouring tar on the syrup. We are just going to drown under this,” said Budnick, referring to workers like her in creative fields.

Although it is too early to say precisely which economic subcontracts could become visible throughout the labor market after the price announcement of President Donald Trump on April 2, economists told Business Insider that uncertainty probably pushes some employers to reduce hiring.

“It’s a kind of frozen market,” said Andrew Flowers, chief economist of Appcast, in BI. “There will be even less hiring and perhaps an increase in shooting.”

For months, the prospect of a trade war remained as unploded ammunition alongside the business plans of certain companies. Now that Trump goes ahead with prices, including a 10%reference tax, the impact could be deep.

“We are starting to see perhaps more feelings that,” hey, it was not a negotiation tactic, and that these prices are probably there to stay “, told Bi Cory Stahle, economist in the hiring laboratory.

Lukewarm hiring could spread

Flowers said that part of the slowness that has afflicted the hiring of white passes for years could exceed other parts of the labor market.

He said that a few areas that had been strong, such as health care, should remain so. However, the industries that had been relative, including retail, transport and storage, and certain manufacturing corners – an alleged domestic beneficiary of prices – could be struck, said Flowers.

US employers have already been using workers at the slowest rate for almost a decade, Stahle said. In addition to that, the number of jobs in the United States has decreased, he noted.

At the end of December, the lists increased to around 12% above their precovid-19 levels, Stahle said. Then, from the beginning of January to the end of March, the openings derived at around 8.2% above their pre-pale levels.

Silver liners

Flowers said that industries such as finance, insurance, technology and professional services, which, according to him, have known a “white -collar recession” for two to three years, may not be touched so hard because they are already somewhat weak and because the impact of prices could be indirect.

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A bright point is that global layoffs remain low, even with large cuts in research for federal workers.

However, Flowers said the greatest impact on workers could come from dull hiring.

“There will be job cuts because of these prices, but almost more proportionally, the fact that there will be no hiring because of these prices,” he said.

Flowers said that in the worst case, where pricing reprisals are pouring into a world trade war in Tit-For-Tat, layoffs would be likely.

“The slope of the pricing rates has frightened investors and frightened business leaders,” said Flowers.

Any impact will be added to the employment and the expenses that the White House tries to make in government agencies through the Advisory Group of the Ministry of Government efficiency led by Elon Musk.

A White House spokesman said in a statement in Bi that prices were part of a “critical” element of the president’s economic agenda.

“The administration also reduces regulations, pushes tax cuts and unleashes American energy to reduce energy costs – policies that will also inaugurate economic growth and employment as they did during the first presidency of Trump,” said the spokesperson.

“A self-fulfilling prophecy”

Stahle said that a higher risk that the success of prices could be the uncertainty they create, especially if it leads companies to withdraw hiring and spend or pushes consumers to lock their portfolios.

“If people feel that it will absolutely destroy things and that they act from this expectation, it could end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said, referring to the fallout from the prices.

This precarious atmosphere was more and more obvious on Friday. The March job report has shown greater gains in American hiring than forecasts, as well as the downward revisions of employment growth for the start of the year.

However, the global markets have plunged for a second day, the S&P 500 reference index losing more than 10% in two days.

Many investors are now looking at pre-tariff data points and rather focus on the prospects of a commercial environment where global trade could be held by protectionist trends.

“One month’s data is increasingly like ancient history now,” said Stahle, referring to the March job report.

For Budnick, the filmmaker, a key concern is that prices could make business owners less ready to spend on the type of content it produces. Already, she had trouble. Before February 2023, Budnick had not left without full -time work for a dozen years.

“You wonder what the future will hold,” she said. “Where does that go if people can’t support their families?”

Do you have a story to share on your job search? Contact this journalist at tparadis@businessinsider.com.