Preview – Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy decision due today, but expected to be suspended

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s statement is expected at 02:00 GMT, or 10:00 p.m. US Eastern Time.

The Bank is expected to maintain its key rate at 5.5%.

I posted this on Tuesday:

Via ANZ now, a few things to note from their preview:

We (like everyone else) expect the OCR to remain unchanged at 5.50%, with a reiteration of the key messages from February’s MPS. Since then, the data has been mixed, but on the net, nothing has shaken things up.

Overall…we see no clear reason for the RBNZ to significantly change its thinking from February onwards. This decision to suspend OCR is taken for granted, but there are a few interesting things to watch for in the meeting minutes:

1. Any discussion of short-term inflation risks (monthly price indices, NZD, oil prices).

2. Does the Committee believe that the surprise rise in consumption in the fourth quarter was notable (we do not believe it was overwhelmingly demonstrated by weakness elsewhere in the GDP data).

3. And of course, any changes in the language surrounding the monetary policy outlook. However, we expect something extremely similar, if not identical, to the February line that “interest rates should remain at a restrictive level for an extended period of time.”

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NZD/USD update, kiwi$ traded mostly in line with other “risks”: