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What is expected :
- Consensus Estimate +243K (range +150 to +280K)
- Private estimate +190K versus +232K previously
- February +303K
- Consensus estimate of the unemployment rate: 3.8% versus 3.8% previously
- Participation rate: 62.7% before
- Previous underemployment U6 7.3%
- Average hourly wage over the year exp +4.0% over the year compared to +4.1% before
- Average hourly salary m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.3% before
- Average weekly hours exp 34.4 vs. 34.4 previously
Jobs from March so far:
- ADP ratio +192K versus +175K expected and +208K previously
- ISM services employment released Friday at 10 a.m. ET
- ISM manufacturing employment 48.6 versus 47.4 previously
- Jobs at Challenger are cut by 64.7K compared to 90.3K previously (four-month low)
- Employment in Philadelphia -10.7 compared to -9.6 previously
- Empire employment -5.7 compared to -7.1 previously
- Initial survey on unemployment claims, week 212K
According to BMO, employment numbers are seasonally positive in April – beating estimates 57% of the time (by an average of 62,000), missing 39% of the time (by an average of 50,000) and matching the consensus in 4% of the time (excluding 2020/21). As for the unemployment rate, 44% of April’s previous numbers were lower than expected, 36% were higher than estimated, and 20% were in line with forecasts.
Generally, these numbers indicate a beat, but the consensus is the highest since September 2022, suggesting that economists have already priced in much of the upside.
The non-farm payroll and the consensus is
cnbctv18-forexlive
