Recent polls suggest that Kamala Harris has received little to no support from the conventions, with Donald Trump ahead of the vice president in several crucial swing states.
A Trafalgar Group survey of seven of the toughest constituencies — considered by experts to be Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada — shows Trump either leading or tied with Harris.
Trump leads Harris 47% to 45% in Pennsylvania and 47% to 46% in Wisconsin, two states that went red in 2016 when Trump won before flipping to Democrats in 2020 when he lost to Joe Biden.
The Trafalgar survey, considered by poll aggregators to be leaning Republican, also shows Harris nearly tied with Trump in Michigan, with the former president leading 47% to 46.6%.
Michigan is another state that Trump took from Hillary Clinton in 2016 before handing it to Biden four years later.
The latest poll suggests Kamala Harris has received little to no support from the conventions, showing Donald Trump ahead of the vice president in five key states
A Trafalgar Group survey of seven of the toughest elections — considered by experts to be Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada — shows Trump leading or tied with Harris.
A separate poll by Insider Advantage shows Trump leading by one point in Arizona (49%-48%), Nevada (48%-47%) and North Carolina (49%-48%), with Harris and Trump tied at 48% in Georgia.
Both campaigns are targeting independent and swing voters in seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Nevada voted blue in both 2016 and 2020 and has the least influence in the Electoral College of any battleground with just six votes.
In the 2016 race between Trump and Hillary Clinton, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all voted red, and only Nevada went blue.
But in the 2020 race between Trump and Joe Biden, five of the six states that had gone red in previous election cycles went blue.
Only the southern state of North Carolina remained red.
Trump, Harris and their running mates – Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, respectively – are touring these key states.
It’s a much-needed boost in the polls for Trump, who still trails Harris by 1.8 points in the RealClearPolling average.
Both campaigns — including that of Harris’ running mate Tim Walz — are targeting independent and swing voters in seven key swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump, Harris and their running mates – Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance (pictured) and Minnesota Gov. Walz respectively – are touring these key states
Harris has a 57% chance of winning in the FiveThirtyEight election model, while Nate Silver’s model also shows the vice president with a slight edge.
The announcement comes after news that the vice president did not benefit from a boost in the polls following the Democratic National Convention.
Typically, the lovefest that is a political convention results in a rise to prominence for the party’s nominee — but this year, there was an exception for both the Republican and Democratic events.
According to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday, the vice president’s chances are essentially the same today as they were before the DNC in Chicago two weeks ago.
Harris has the support of 50 percent of all adults and registered voters, compared to 46 percent who say they would vote for Trump if the election were held today.
His lead is 2 percentage points outside the poll’s margin of error — but that small lead has historically meant little or nothing to a candidate’s actual chances of winning in November.
Although the results were nearly identical to those before the DNC, the gender preference gap widened, with women preferring Harris over Trump by 13 points, 54% to 41%.
Before the convention, Harris had a 6-point lead among women and a 3-point lead among men in the ABC poll.
It’s a much-needed boost in the polls for Trump, who still trails Harris by 1.8 points in the RealClearPolling average.
This follows news that the vice president failed to gain any traction in the polls after the Democratic National Convention.
Trump now leads men by 5 points, 51% to 46%.
Like Harris, Trump also failed to enjoy his usual resurgence after the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in July.
The stagnation of the position between Trump and Harris is indicative of the locked-in nature of the highly polarized 2024 race as campaigns enter the final two months before Election Day.
Trump leads voters on key concerns heading into the election, including an 8 percent lead on confidence in dealing with the economy and rising inflation and a 9-point lead on handling immigration at the southern border.
The candidates’ running mates are head-to-head, with just a one percentage point difference between those who think they are willing to be president if necessary. Walz has 50 percent confidence to Vance’s 49 percent.
But a quarter of those surveyed were not prepared to express their opinion on Walz or Vance.
Much of this week’s narrative seems to be devoted to the September 10 debate in Philadelphia between Trump and Harris, carried by ABC News.
Trump will appear on a Fox News town hall with Sean Hannity at the New Holland Arena in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on September 4.
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