If you’re interested in modern six-figure references with Cerachom (ceramic) bezel inserts and updated movements, you’ll be happy to know that the Rolex Submariner reference 124060 (the current non-date version released in 2020) is down about 5% over the past year, according to the ChronoPulse Index. If you want a date complication, the current reference 126610LN is down 4%. That puts these desirable models right around retail prices (plus tax). This is a common benchmark for pre-owned prices. The 126610 with date can go for around $13,000 with box and papers at the time of this writing, and the 124060 without date can be had for just over $10,000.
Maybe winning a retail subscription isn’t as good as we thought a few years ago.
Surprisingly, the all-green 2010 “Hulk” reference 116610, which was once downright rare a few years ago, has also just disappeared. During the pandemic, you would have paid over $26,000 for a Hulk, but now they’re available for under $17,000. That’s truly shocking.
Genuine Vintage Submariners
While ChronoPulse doesn’t provide data on four-digit references (from World War II to around 1979), we recommend taking a look at the famous Submariner 1680 with date, produced by Rolex with “SUBMARINER” written in red or white text. The famous “Red Sub” always commands a premium. We see nice 1680s with white text for around $14,000, while Red Subs are around $20,000 and up. You can check out a recent edition of our weekly column Shopping time for great deals on vintage submarines.
Beware: Vintage prices tend to work on their own, as trends (and therefore supply), as well as condition, drive this market in a less predictable way. In short, you will see a very wide variation in prices, although the trend is generally downward.
The five-digit GMT-Master II looks reasonable (again)
The coveted GMT-Master II models are also down, but the changes are less drastic than with the Subs. Discontinued models like the steel reference 126710LN “Pepsi” on a Jubilee bracelet seem to be holding their own, but the five-digit GMT-Master II Pepsi reference 16710 models are down more than seven percent in the last 12 months. That means you’ll pay less than $10,000 for a nice GMT Master II. That’s a considerable drop, and given the general rise in watch prices, it’s not a bad deal at all.
The condition of five-digit GMT-Master II references has a particular influence on price. Bezel discoloration tends to scare away some collectors if it’s particularly faded (sun-bleached), while excessive case polishing (which was common in the five-digit era) will drive prices down. All of this is to say that there’s a wide range of prices for GMT-Master II references, but if you’re looking for a really cool watch to wear every day, a relatively clean watch can be had for under $10,000.
Explorer II Price Drops
If there’s a collectible Rolex, it’s the 40mm Explorer II 16570, especially with a “polar” (white) dial. These GMT models have historically been Rolex’s least sought-after, but they’re very popular with watch enthusiasts, in part because they’re reasonably priced. It turns out that the 40mm 16570 with a black dial is down from last year, but fluctuating a bit more than the other models (likely due to the recent media coverage of the 16570, as well as the growing demand for smaller watches). Meanwhile, the six-figure 42mm 226570 is also in roughly the same range.
You can still expect to pay more for white dials than black dials with the Explorer II references, but the prices are really low: around $8,000 for a black dial, and only $8,500 for a white dial at the time of this writing. As always, condition, service history, box, and papers will be important.
Large Datejusts down, small Datejusts up
A 41mm Rolex Datejust used to be a safe bet, but tastes have changed and watches are getting smaller, even smaller dress watches. We believe these trends have driven the 41mm Datejust down 14% in price over the past year, which is truly an astonishing result. Meanwhile, the 36mm Datejust is up 55% year-over-year and still climbing. Who would have guessed?
The Datejust’s impressive performance may also indicate a growing preference for dressier watches. Based on anecdotal reports from collectors, this assessment seems fair. (Note: ChronoPulse does not offer data on the 36mm Oyster Perpetuals.)
The Daytona, the Milgauss and many others
I think the picture we paint, supported by data, is relatively clear: this is a Rolex buyer’s market, with some exceptions for specific models.
For example, steel Rolex Daytonas remain generally expensive (about double what you would pay retail for a Daytona), yet the 2016 Rolex Daytona 116500LN is down over 12% compared to the same period last year. Even the discontinued Milgauss 116400GV is down 4% during this period. The decline in Daytonas and discontinued models is a clear sign of the market’s buying bias.
As with buying any pre-owned watch: do your research, find a good example, and note whether you’re looking at an anomaly that has skyrocketed in price or whether you’re getting a bargain because the price of that model has dropped. You can also check out our video with tips on buying vintage and pre-owned watches.
As always, happy collecting!
The Best of the Robb Report
Subscribe to Robbreport’s newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
Click here to read the full article.
yahoo
