Poll shows Trump may not have a clear mandate for his agenda

WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump will begin implementing a sweeping program when he takes office for the second time on Monday, but a poll finds that despite his demands from a “powerful and unprecedented mandate,” the new Republican president lacks broad support for some of his top priorities.

Just over half of U.S. adults favor eliminating taxes on tipped income, according to the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey, but some of his other promises — like removing of the Paris climate agreement, increased oil drilling on federal lands and the imposition of new tariffs – are less widely favored.

It is possible that opinion will change on many of the proposals, since a significant share of Americans have a neutral point of view. But some are more clearly unpopular. A majority of American adults, for example, oppose pardoning most people who participated in the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, indicating that one of the actions Trump promised to take quickly will likely not be welcome to many Americans.

Here’s what Americans think about some of the major measures Trump promised, some of which could begin taking effect as early as Monday.

American adults divided on mass deportations, but most support deporting immigrants convicted of violent crimes

Trump has long promised to illegally deport millions of people in the country, although he failed to achieve that goal in his first term. However, during his four years in the White House, he pledged to start largest deportation program in American history, which could begin as soon as he takes the oath of office.

The poll found that targeted deportations of immigrants convicted of a crime would be popular, even if they involved immigrants who are in the country legally, but that support does not extend to mass deportations.

About 8 in 10 American adults support deporting all immigrants living in the United States illegally who have been convicted of a violent crime — with about two-thirds strongly in favor — and about 7 in 10 adults support the deportation of all immigrants living legally in the United States who have been convicted of a violent crime.

Deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally and have not been convicted of a crime is a much more controversial proposition. American adults are slightly more likely to oppose the policy than to favor it, and only about 4 in 10 favor it.

Nearly half of American adults oppose tariffs on all foreign products

Tariffs on foreign goods entering the country are one of Trump’s proposed solutions to high food prices And illegal immigrationwhich are questions that motivated many of his voters in November.

However, nearly half of U.S. adults “somewhat” or “strongly” oppose imposing a tariff, also known as an import tax, according to the AP-NORC poll, on all goods imported into the United States from other countries. About 3 in 10 are supportive, and about a quarter are neutral, saying they neither favor nor oppose the policy, indicating that opinion could shift one way or the other if the tariffs are implemented.

Republicans are much more likely than Democrats and independents to support expanded tariffs, but a significant share — about 4 in 10 — oppose them or are unsure. Just over half of Republicans support imposing tariffs on all products imported into the United States.

Only about 2 in 10 support pardoning most January 6 participants.

Trump promised throughout his campaign to grant pardons to many more than 1,500 people charged with felonies for their actions related to the deadly Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, saying he “most likely would do it very quickly” in a December interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

But even if he does not use his power of grace in favor of all the riotersAs some of his supporters have suggested, pardoning large numbers of participants would be an unpopular move.

According to the AP-NORC poll, about 2 in 10 American adults “somewhat” or “strongly” favor pardoning most people who participated in the attack. A much larger share – about 6 in 10 – “somewhat” or “strongly” oppose the move, including half who are strongly opposed, and about 2 in 10 who are neutral.

Members of Trump’s own party are divided on pardons, although they are overall more likely to support them. About 4 in 10 Republicans favor pardoning many of the Jan. 6 participants, while about 3 in 10 are neutral and about 3 in 10 oppose it.

The elimination of taxes on tipped income is particularly popular among young adults.

The pledge to exclude worker tips from federal taxes was frequently discussed during the election campaign and was also adopted by Trump’s opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. And even though it could be expensive and difficult to implementThis is one of Trump’s campaign promises that enjoys the greatest support from all Americans.

The poll finds that just over half of American adults “somewhat” or “strongly” favor eliminating the tax on tipped income, while about a quarter are neutral and about 2 in 10 are opposed to it.

The proposal is more popular with Republicans than Democrats, and it also enjoys particularly high levels of support among adults under 30.

U.S. adults divided on whether to increase oil drilling on federal lands

Trump promised establishing American “energy dominance” in part by boosting oil and gas drilling, including on federal lands.

American adults aren’t so sure. The AP-NORC poll found that about a third of Americans “somewhat” or “strongly” favor increased oil drilling on federal lands, while about 4 in 10 are opposed. The rest – about a quarter – say they are neither in favor nor opposed to the decision.

Increasing oil drilling is largely popular with Republicans, but not with Democrats or independents.

About half oppose withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement

During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States of the Paris climate agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and although President Joe Biden immediately rejoined upon taking office, Trump has promised to go out a second time when he takes office.

About half of Americans “somewhat” or “strongly” oppose the action, and even Republicans are not overwhelmingly in favor, according to the poll. Only about 2 in 10 American adults “somewhat” or “strongly” favor withdrawing from the Paris agreement, while about a quarter are neutral.

Much of the opposition comes from Democrats, but Republicans also display some ambivalence. Just under half of Republicans favor it, while about 3 in 10 are opposed.

More opposition than support for eliminating federal protections for transgender students

A judge recently hit a Democratic Biden administration rule expanding protections for LGBTQ+ students, which Trump had promised to end on his first day, after addressing anti-transgender themes at the heart of his campaign.

But although there are signs that his message has struck a chord with voters, the new poll found that opposition is higher than support for eliminating protections for transgender students under Title IX, the A federal law that prohibits any high school or college that receives federal funds from discriminating on the basis of sex.

Nearly half of U.S. adults are “somewhat” or “strongly” opposed to removing these protections, while about 3 in 10 are in favor and the rest are neutral.

About half of Republicans and Democrats oppose removing the debt ceiling.

As a government shutdown loomed late last year, Trump proposed raise or even remove the debt ceilinga limit set by lawmakers that determines how much the federal government can borrow to pay its existing bills. The problem could soon resurface if Trump pushes costly tax cuts that he promised during the election campaign.

In general, Trump’s position is not popular, although it is possible that opinion will change. About half of U.S. adults oppose removing the debt ceiling, while about a quarter are in favor and about three in ten are neutral.

But in another unusual moment of bipartisan agreement, Democrats are only slightly more likely than Republicans to oppose removing the debt ceiling.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,147 adults was conducted Jan. 9-13, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all adults is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.