Political Prognosticator Tipped Montana Senate Toward Republican, While Tester Lags

A leading political prognosticator has changed his forecast for Montana’s November Senate race to show a Republican advantage as Democratic Sen. Jon Tester begins to lose ground in the polls.

The battle between Tester and Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, went from “close” to “leaning Republican” by Sabato’s crystal ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics on Friday, less than nine weeks before the election.

The rating change follows the release Thursday of a new AARP poll showing Sheehy with a six-point lead (51%-45%) over Tester in a two-way race. In an expanded field, Sheehy still beat Tester 49%-41%.

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“Beyond the polls, history and recent trends are simply not on Tester’s side, as we’ve discussed before,” wrote editor Kyle Kondik. “He’s one of a relatively small number of outliers in both houses of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the last presidential election.”

“Maybe vote splitting will come back strong this year – if it does, Tester might still survive. But the long-term trend is clearly toward a decline in vote splitting,” he said.

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Tester and Sheehy’s campaigns did not immediately provide comment to Fox News Digital.

Montanans first elected Tester to the Senate in 2006, and he was reelected twice, although the state traditionally votes Republican.

The Democratic senator’s re-election in 2018 did not coincide with a presidential election, freeing him from fears that the Democratic presidential nominee would influence his race. But now, Vice President Kamala Harris will lead the Democratic ticket, while former President Trump, who won Montana twice in 2016 and 2020, will lead the Republican ticket in the state.

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Tester has been hesitant to endorse Harris and did not attend the Democratic National Convention last month. While he appears to be distancing himself from Harris and her party, it is unclear how effective that strategy will be, especially since reports have indicated that Tester, who at the time headed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), was personally responsible for recruiting Harris to the Senate in 2015.

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Additionally, the Montana Democrat gave his fellow Senator Harris his unwavering support when she was chosen as President Biden’s running mate in 2020. He wrote on X: “My friend @KamalaHarris is a proven fighter and an excellent choice for Vice President. As Vice President, I am confident she will continue to fight for working families across this country. I look forward to supporting her and @JoeBiden in November.”

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More recently, Tester said: “I’m not going to support the presidential candidacy – and I’ll tell you why.”

“Two reasons: One, I’m focused on my race. And two, people wanted to nationalize this race, and this is not a national policy issue. This is a Montana issue,” he said, justifying his decision not to give Harris his seal of approval.

Aubrie Spady of Fox News Digital contributed to this report.

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