Political expert examines Trump’s assertive approach to Latin America foreign policy: NPR

The Trump administration has taken an aggressive approach to foreign policy in Latin America. NPR’s Scott Simon speaks with Ivan Briscoe at the International Crisis Group about this shift.

SCOTT SIMON, HOST:

When it comes to foreign policy in Latin America, the Trump administration has favored a more muscular approach, demanding control of the Panama Canal, a bailout of Argentina with strings attached, and opposing tariffs on Brazil to influence the trial of a former president – ​​and as we just heard, killing suspected drug traffickers on boats in the Caribbean – all it is part of a growing pressure campaign against the Nicolas Maduro regime in Venezuela. We are now joined by Ivan Briscoe. He is senior policy director at the International Crisis Group. Thank you very much for being with us.

IVAN BRISCOE: It’s a pleasure to be on your show. THANKS.

SIMON: What do you think defines the Trump administration’s approach to Latin America?

BRISCOE: I don’t think you can summarize that easily. I think it’s multi-pronged, and that’s what we’re seeing at play in the region right now. The focal point, of course, is domestic policy, which controls migrants, comes down hard on the drug epidemic, particularly fentanyl use, and restores manufacturing to the United States. I think a lot of this has to do with policy toward Latin America, which is where most of the migrants come from, where the drugs come from, and where much of the manufacturing industry has gone. This sentiment that Latin America is hurting the United States has been used by Trump since the very beginning of his political career.

But there are two other elements, I think, that are really important. One is the Monroe Doctrine – you know, the idea that the United States is the only true major power capable of operating throughout the Americas. No other power can do it. But a final element is Trump’s individual relationship with the leaders of his partisan ideological camp with whom he has a strong personal relationship and with whom he is willing to make one-on-one deals, it seems, favor for favor, in an effort to build a broader pro-Trump coalition, if you will, across Latin America. And this aspect of his approach is one that we are just starting to see more of, and the consequences are very uncertain.

SIMON: Let me come back to Venezuela, because we have these ship strikes and a now confirmed CIA presence operating in Venezuela. Do you think that, at the same time, this is likely to cause regime change in Venezuela?

BRISCOE: I’m not so sure. And I think that’s what’s kind of driving U.S. policy toward Venezuela right now: the perception that the Venezuelan government is actually weaker in some ways than it’s ever been. It’s a message that has evidently been propagated by Nobel laureate and Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. But there is no denying that there is truth in this. The Venezuelan government lost elections last year. This prevented the actual results from being published. This led to a crackdown. But this is a major event which has brought it discredit in the region among its neighbors. And obviously, this weakens the movement from within.

But the problem – of course, the more practical problem, is the fact that this government is stuck in power. It has a very effective repressive apparatus. It’s very close to the military. So is there a real possibility of withdrawing some of these allies or removing military support to generate change? I’m not sure.

SIMON: Let’s hear something that Nobel Peace Prize winner and opposition leader in Venezuela, Maria Corina Machado, said Sunday on our WEEKEND EDITION show.

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MARIA CORINA MACHADO: Once Maduro leaves, the Cuban regime will follow him. The Nicaraguan regime will follow. And for the first time in history, the Americas will be free from communism and narcodictatorships.

SIMON: Do you share this confidence?

BRISCOE: No, because history would say we’ve seen this message spread from prominent Latin American politicians, leading figures in Washington for decades. How many years have it been since the Cuban Revolution? It’s almost difficult to do the math in your head: 66 years, right? It’s very long. We’ve heard it before, and we tend not to believe it because in each case it’s difficult to see how this process unfolds, because these are very authoritarian and repressive states, with powerful secret police and intelligence services, which very quickly repress any sign of dissent.

SIMON: Why do you think the Trump administration made Argentina’s bailout conditional on the results of Argentina’s elections? Why has President Trump sided so much with President Milei?

BRISCOE: Well, they share a lot in common. Milei – he won with the promise of eliminating political elites, freeing the economy, ending all nonsense – so very similar messages – conservative social values, lean state, tough on security. Trump sees in Milei this kindred spirit, and he believes that by establishing strong ties with individual leaders – Milei, Bukele in El Salvador, Noboa in Ecuador – that will mark the beginning of a gradual shift in the region towards much more pro-Trumpian governments that will work more closely with the United States and engage in these kinds of deals and these kinds of favors for favors, which I think Trump is the most effective way to lead. diplomacy.

But I’m just not sure that this aggressive approach to Latin American countries, insisting that voters listen to what he says and do what he wants, is going to work. Latin Americans are very sensitive to attacks on their sovereignty, especially from the United States, and this is a very dangerous game to play.

SIMON: Ivan Briscoe is senior policy director at the International Crisis Group. Thank you very much for being with us.

BRISCOE: Thank you very much.

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