Polish PM issues stark warning as European elections approach

Go vote if you don’t want to go to war.

This is the difficult choice presented by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk ahead of this weekend’s European elections. His team emphasizes security, or more precisely the threat of Russian aggression, as a major theme.

While pro-Russia parties are poised to make progress elsewhere, notably in Central Europe, the Tusk Civic Coalition stresses that the EU must remain firm and united in the face of danger from Moscow.

He calls on the Polish people to come out and vote to protect themselves.

The message draws on real concerns among the country’s electorate, as many Poles instinctively distrust their giant neighbor for reasons both historical and geographical.

Over more than 230 kilometers, northern Poland collides with Kaliningrad, the heavily militarized Russian enclave. Demarcated by thick rolls of barbed wire, the border is monitored by vehicles equipped with thermal cameras.

At the main crossing point, the word RUSSIA is clearly written in red letters on the other side. Each bus full of passengers is meticulously checked with a sniffer dog before being allowed to pass.

Security was already tight when President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago. But as the euro vote approaches, Donald Tusk said he would do more.

“Shield East” is a 10 billion zloty (£1.992 billion) project to strengthen Poland’s border, with everything from high-tech surveillance to trenches. The aim is to ensure that “the enemy” knows to “stay away” from Poland, the Prime Minister announced.

This action must be coordinated with Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, three Baltic states that have their own reasons to distrust Russia.

In small Slovakia to the south and in Hungary, politicians are talking about the need for a “compromise” with Moscow. This results in concessions from Kyiv.

They issue statements filled with Kremlin talking points.

But Poland remains firmly convinced of the risk posed by Vladimir Putin’s Russia if Ukraine were to lose this war.

For this election, while Donald Tusk’s team has hijacked the security agenda, the main opposition Law and Justice party, PiS, has focused elsewhere.

He has worked to criticize the EU’s migration deal and criticize the Green Deal on carbon emissions, a policy the party fully supported when in power.

But Poland was already investing massively in defense under the PiS government, due to the Russian threat. And the party hasn’t completely abandoned the theme.

One of the PiS candidates in this election became a minor internet sensation with a campaign video showing him single-handedly stopping a Russian tank, Tiananmen Square style.

“We have already stopped evil several times and we will stop it again,” intones Karol Karski, a bearded professor in a suit and glasses, one arm outstretched towards a tank speeding through the forest.

Here in Poland, even the younger generation is warned.

At a school just outside Warsaw, children learn survival skills. It’s part of a new program that sends Territorial Defense soldiers to teach emergency drills in classrooms across the country.

From evacuation to orienteering to resuscitation, these are useful skills. But the teenagers we met clearly explained why they were taking this training.

“Because there is a war in Ukraine and we are in danger,” Sebastian, 17, told me between exercises.

Not nervous, just a fact.

“Russia is close to us and it could attack us, I think,” Igor admitted. “We must learn to defend ourselves.”

“One of the factors behind the creation of this project is the situation on our eastern border and the state’s response to the real threat,” confirmed Captain Dominik Pijarski of the 6th Mazovia Brigade.

I asked him if he was concerned about a military threat from Russia.

“Only fools are not afraid,” the soldier replied, before adding: “I believe that the entire nation has learned the lessons of what is happening… and is preparing to be ready at the highest level, in the face of a real threat. “.

But distrust of Russia does not always translate into unconditional support for Ukraine.

A short drive from Warsaw leads into the heart of agricultural countryside and small villages marked by imposing crucifixes and Catholic shrines.

Recently, some fruit growers left their fields to protest on the Ukrainian border and in central Warsaw.

They are unhappy with the European Green Deal which will increase their production costs.

But they are also worried about competition from Ukrainian farmers: they export certain products free of customs duties to support an economy devastated by war.

“Ukrainian competition leaves us no chance,” says farmer Mariusz Konarzewski, who has worked this land since the age of 18 and now fears for his livelihood: long, tidy rows of slender apple trees.

Ukrainian farmers have better soils and higher yields, says Konarzewski. They can also use chemicals banned in the EU, making them more productive.

“It seems that Ukraine is waging a war on two fronts: one against Russia and the other against Polish farmers,” is his view of the competition. “If this continues, we will simply perish.”

I wonder if the farmers want to support Ukraine, which is facing Russian attacks, and they are quick to recognize that kyiv needs help. Some call Vladimir Putin a “maniac”.

But resentment simmers beneath their words.

“The Poles helped the Ukrainians in every possible way. Today, instead of walking hand in hand, they waged open war against us,” repeats Mr. Konarzewski.

“Militarily, of course, we have to help,” another farmer told me. “But we haven’t done anything wrong that we should suffer.”

The European elections do not generate much enthusiasm. Turnout is traditionally much lower than in a national vote and there are not the same number of campaign posters around town.

But when Donald Tusk gathers a crowd of supporters in Warsaw on Tuesday for a final rally before the vote, security will certainly be among his priorities.

The message: living next to Russia remains a risk. And that all of Europe must remain on guard.