Yesterday, for a while in American exchanges, there was concern that risky trades would fail. But ultimately, the more optimistic mood was preserved as stocks ended the day higher. With this in mind, we see gold falling further today to $2,300. This comes against the backdrop of a short-term change in sentiment the day before, as shown here.
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar continues to remain in a rather comfortable position. Commodity currencies had a decent start to the week, but relative to the dollar, the gains were nothing to write home about. Meanwhile, USD/JPY continues to hover near the 155.00 mark as we await the most important data releases of the week. Is Icarus flying too close to the sun?
As for today’s trading, PMI data will be in the spotlight. Publications from the Eurozone and the UK are not expected to have a major impact on the outlook for the ECB and BOE respectively. Unless we have major surprises in the readings. But all things being equal, the ECB is on track for a June decision and the BOE should still keep the door open for an August decision.
Looking at market odds, traders see around a 67% chance of an ECB rate cut in June. As for the BOE in August, traders fully priced it in while seeing about a 62% chance of a move in June. I wouldn’t expect these odds to change drastically today. But we’ll see.
Rather, US PMI data released later today will likely have the most potential impact.
07:15 GMT – Flash France for April for manufacturing industry, services, composite PMI
07:30 GMT – Germany: April flash on manufacturing industry, services, composite PMI
08:00 GMT – April flash in the Eurozone for manufacturing, services, composite PMI
08:30 GMT – April UK flash for manufacturing, services and composite PMI
That’s all for the upcoming session. I wish you good days ahead and good luck in your trading! Stay safe out there.
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