Picks, odds for each match

Alright, here we go again. Some things are the same and some are different as the Jets travel to Foxborough to face the Patriots on Sunday.

One thing that’s the same is that the Patriots still have a massive winning streak against the Jets, which now stands at 13 games following New England’s 22-17 win at MetLife Stadium on Oct. 30. Another is that the stakes remain high thanks to the Jets’ anger. victory over the Bills before the bye. The Jets are 6-3 and with a win, they would claim first place in the AFC East on tiebreakers against the inactive Dolphins (7-3) and Bills (6-3 and against the Browns). ).

One change is that both teams could recover some players after injury. Wide receiver DeVante Parker and safety Kyle Dugger are two important Patriots who could return, while Corey Davis, the Jets’ top receiver, could also be back.

The main thing that would need to change for the Jets to cover as three-point underdogs, let alone win, is that Zach Wilson needs to find a way not to disintegrate at the feet of Bill Belichick. Wilson threw three interceptions in the first game and was credited with a rush for 2 yards.

Against the Bills the following week, Wilson ran five times for all-important 24 yards, moving the chains at key moments. If Wilson had turned just one of his interceptions against the Patriots into a first down, the Jets probably would have won this game. They most likely would have won if it hadn’t been for a brutal passer penalty on John Franklin-Myers that nullified a pick six that would have made it 17-3. Replays showed it was a legitimate call, but would the Jets have gotten the same flag on the road if, say, Matthew Judon had put the same hit on Wilson?

If you had bet on the Jets in each of the last 13 games against the Patriots, you would be living in a van by the river and eating dry cat food. But that doesn’t mean they can’t beat them on Sunday. I believe the way they beat the Bills showed the Jets what they need to finally win over the Patriots. So this is it…

Take: Planes +3

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions come into MetLife with the NFL’s worst defense in yards allowed, and they’ve allowed the most runs in the league. Although they are 5-4 ATS and have had many close games, one result that stands out is their 29-0 thrashing in New England. The Giants will eventually stub their toes again, but it won’t be this week in windy conditions against an indoor team.

Chicago Bears (+3) vs. ATLANTA FALCONS

The Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose three straight games in which they have scored at least 29 points. Those losses, however, came against the Cowboys, Dolphins and Lions – good offensive teams. The Falcons are not that. Additionally, the Bears scored 33 goals in a win at New England prior to that ignominious streak. You can count on Justin Fields and can’t count on the Falcons to keep up.

Buffalo Bills (-7.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (in Detroit)

The venue change from Snowpocalypse Orchard Park to scorched, dry Ford Field dropped the line a full point, but that might make the Bills a better bet than they were. Conditions no longer reward Cleveland’s ground attack. I’m not sure about Josh Allen’s elbow, but I think the Bills are going to go nuts after back-to-back losses to the Jets and Vikings.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+6.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Jeff Saturday was a winner in his interim debut for the Colts as Jonathan Taylor broke a long one against the win-pumping Raiders. It’s a huge step forward in the classroom. The biggest concern with the Eagles is that they’re traveling a short week after a physically draining loss for COs.

Los Angeles Rams (+3) vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

This selection amounts to not wanting to pose a field goal with the Saints. Cooper Kupp left the Rams and it’s easy to think they’re out of talent, but Matthew Stafford should come back and maybe guys like Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, Bobby Wagner and Jalen Ramsey can pick up some play as they did before. .

Carolina Panthers (+13) vs. BALTIMORE RAVENS

Here’s a spread that doesn’t look quite right. The Ravens finished their season with a 15-point win over the Jets and a 14-point win over the Saints. In between, every play was decided by a single number, including margins of two, three, three and four. Baker Mayfield is coming back for the Panthers and playing to salvage his career as a starting QB, most likely.

Betting on the NFL?

Washington Commanders (-3) on HOUSTON TEXANS

Not worried about the short week and back-to-back road for the Commanders as they had an 81-47 game advantage and held the ball for over 40 minutes. They could have played this game on Tuesday morning. Washington can go on to beat Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson at the NFL’s 30th range defense.

Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) vs. DENVER BRONCOS

Denver allows the fewest points per game in the NFL (16.6) but also scores the fewest (14.6). It’s hard to cover even a small gap as a favorite when you score so little. The Raiders are 0-6 in one-scored games, but at least they’re playing close games. They still have enough talent to win one here.

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Despite a lot of public money on Minnesota, the books are holding strong on Dallas as a minor road favorite. The Vikings are a stellar 8-1, but only have a 35+ point differential and also rank 29th in range defense.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

With Ja’Marr Chase still out for Cincinnati and TJ Watt available for Pittsburgh, it’s a very interesting call to this number. We’ve given that trend a little rest here, but Mike Tomlin is 48-26 in his career as an underdog, including a Week 1 win at Cincinnati.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (+5.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

It’s the same story for the Chiefs, who remain a top Super Bowl contender but are only 3-5-1 ATS. It is a concern to give points with them. Wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returned to practice Wednesday for the Chargers. If even one of them could come back, stay on the pitch and produce, that would be a huge help for Justin Herbert.

Monday

Arizona Cardinals (+8) vs. SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (in Mexico City)

Big question mark at quarterback for the Cardinals. They beat the Rams with Colt McCoy for injured Kyler Murray, but now McCoy is injured. While that’s a good number to support Murray, you’d want double-digits if Trace McSorley is under Arizona’s center.

Best bets: Commanders, Bears, Cowboys.
Lock of the week: Commanders (locks 6-4 in 2022).
Last week: 7-7 on aggregate, 2-1 Best bets.
Thursday: Packers.