The winner of the 2023-24 Premier League will be decided on the final day of the season.
This weekend’s 10 matches kick off at 11am on Sunday, but the focus will be on two: Arsenal v Everton and Manchester City v West Ham United.
Arsenal come into this weekend two points behind City, but the Gunners have a superior goal difference, meaning they would lift the trophy if they beat Everton and Manchester City fail to win against the Hammers.
The odds suggest that Arsenal and Man City should take care of business (Arsenal are -650 to win and City are -1050), but those numbers appear to be wildly inflated due to the situation.
This is a classic “unavoidable tax”. In fact, I’d argue there’s value in taking down both teams in different ways.
In Arsenal’s case, I think it’s quite simple.
If this game was played in February and not the last weekend of the season, there is no chance Everton would be 16/1 to win.
The Toffees boast a top-five defense in terms of expected goals and big scoring chances allowed.
They are difficult to beat, and with all the pressure on Arsenal, I wouldn’t be shocked if this game was up for grabs late in the competition.
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West Ham can also pose problems for City, but the Hammers are desperate defensively.
So instead of backing the Hammers to win, I’m going to punt them to score first.
Games: Everton (16/1, FanDuel) and West Ham’s first goal (+425)
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