Pick against the spread for Saturday

The Post’s Dave Blezow gives his predictions for the Texans-Chiefs, Commanders-Lions.

Welcome to the best weekend of football the NFL has to offer every year, for my money.

Four matches over two days. All the powers are here – the Chiefs, the Lions, the Eagles, the Ravens and the Bills. They are joined by upstart Commanders and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, as well as the ever-rising Texans and second-year quarterback CJ Stroud.

Then there’s the Rams, led by the Super Bowl-winning coach-quarterback combo of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford, fresh off their rout of the Vikings in a game moved to Arizona due to the California wildfires. Los Angeles.

Let’s take things from the top:

SATURDAY

Houston Texans (+8.5) vs. KANSAS CITY CHEFS; Over 41.5: Interesting match both on the field and on the betting screen.

When the teams met at Arrowhead four days before Christmas, the 14-1 Chiefs were favored by just 3.5 points at home against the 9-5 Texans. The reason for the short line was that Patrick Mahomes suffered what appeared to be a serious ankle injury the previous week against Cleveland.

After being questionable all week, Mahomes entered the game after a Stroud interception and led an 11-play, 66-yard, more than six-minute drive that resulted in his 15-yard touchdown run. The Chiefs went on to win 27-19 and cover the spread, but that margin wouldn’t be enough here.

For Chiefs fans, it’s easy to make the argument that they’ll beat the Texans more this time with Mahomes healthy, and Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo having just seen what Houston has to offer.

Texans bettors may point out that WR Tank Dell suffered a serious injury in the third quarter at 17-16 and the team held on throughout. It’s the latter where I land, thinking the Texans will benefit from their recent visit to Arrowhead.

Even though the Unders were 5-1 going into wild-card weekend, that number seems low. The teams combined for 46 points on Dec. 21, and that was with Mahomes ill and six drives of at least 10 plays sapping the clock.

Chiefs, 27-20.

STRAIT LIONS (-9.5) vs. Washington Commanders; Less than 55.5: The most impressive coaching feat I’ve seen this season was done by Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.

In Week 18, with first place in the NFC North and a first-round bye on the line, Glenn’s defense turned Sam Darnold into a pumpkin and left the Vikings’ flying machine in pieces on the ground. Not only that, Glenn showed the Rams how to do the same thing, knocking the Vikings out of the playoffs.

It’s amazing that we’re talking about the Lions defense considering the heavyweight the team has on the other side of the ball. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Co. should do huge damage if they get the ball quickly and in good field position.

The line and total are in such precarious places, making it difficult to be a handicapper and bettor. Can the Lions pull back enough to inoculate their fans against a backdoor Jayden Daniels coverage? Will the commanders’ offensive contribute enough to overcoming considerable numbers? But that’s why it’s so fun.

Lions, 38-17.

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Betting on the NFL?

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LOCK OF THE WEEK: Lions (locks 8-9 in 2024-25).

LAST WEEK: 5-7 (2-4 sides, 3-4 Over/Unders).

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Why trust New York Post betting

Dave Blezow is one of the longest-tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back 31 years. He won the Post’s NFL betting rankings in 2021 and the playoffs most recently in 2023.