Perhaps the mass of pay not enlarged by the figures: what the data say

• Estimate of consensus + 130K
• Beach estimate + 75K at + 190K
• April was + 228k
• Private consensus + 120k against + 167k before
• Unemployment rate estimated consensus 4.2%
• Prior unemployment rate of 4,1872% against 4.1519% before
• Prior participation rate 62.6%
• Anterior underemployment U6 7.8%
• AVG managed schedule y / y exp + 3.7% against + 3.8% before
• AVG managed schedule m / m Exp + 0.3% against + 0.2% before
• AVG Hehes Hours Exp 34.3 against 34.3 BC

Numbers published so far this month:

• ADP Report + 37K against + 62K before (the lowest in two years)
• Use of ISM 50.7 vs 49.0 before services
• ISM manufacturing use 46.8 vs 46.5 before
• Challenger Job cuts 93.8k vs 105.4k before
• Philly employment +16.5 vs +0.2 before
• Empire Emploi -5.1 vs -2.6 before
• Initial investigation week on unemployment 226K VS 216K before

I noticed that HFE – which is a company that I really respect – is at the upper end of forecasts at + 181K. They often see seasonal quirks and this could be the case here.

In general, there is a modest seasonal force in the report, which exceeds estimates of 54% of the time, although the breaches of the disadvantage were important when they missed. In terms of unemployment rate, 44% were lower, while 40% was higher, the rest corresponding to the estimate.

Overall, I do not think it is a particularly important report given that the Fed is in “wait and see” mode.

Later this year,
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