Paris NFL – Loza and Dopp 2024: the accessories that hit the mark

Welcome to another season of Props that Pop. This column, originally a Liz Loza special, is all about diving into the numbers, reading between the lines, deciphering coaches’ language, and making instinctive decisions with the information we have. This has truly been one of my favorite columns to write each week over the last two NFL seasons, and I’m pumped and ready to keep this prop train rolling.

As always, our lines will come from ESPN BET, so head over to our sportsbook if you’re thinking of playing any of these lines, and remember to always be smart and bet responsibly.

That said, I’m going to keep the intro short this week since we’ve already been waiting months for the NFL to return and there’s no reason to delay it any longer. So, without further ado, Liz and I would like to present to you the 2024 Props that Pop Week 1 edition. — Daniel Dopp

All odds are as of publication date. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

The pillars of the running back position

Jerome Ford OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-132)

Lozere: Ford will have the Cleveland Browns backfield all to himself with Nick Chubb (PUP) and Nyheim Hines (non-football injured list) still nursing their respective knee injuries. The 24-year-old averaged 12 carries last year, but with the Browns as 2.5-point home favorites, the pace of the game should work in his favor, likely increasing his total to around 15. The Dallas Cowboys boast a fierce pass defense, but they were middle of the pack against the run, allowing 4.2 yards per carry in 2023. With a healthy number of passes at his disposal, Ford should easily surpass 50 rushing yards.

Chase Brown OVER 14.5 receiving yards (-120)

Dopp: Well, it’s Week 1, which means we have no idea what the offenses are really going to look like. It feels like more and more teams are taking the “don’t play any of your starters for meaningful minutes in the preseason” approach, and that leaves us wondering how some of these crowded backfields are going to fare. One situation I do have faith in, though, is the split in the Cincinnati Bengals’ backfield. With Joe Mixon out of town, it looks like the starting down job will fall to Zack Moss, with Brown showing off his pass-catching chops as the third down back. It’s a role we saw Brown in late in his rookie season, when he caught two or more passes in four of his last five games. Brown averaged over 11 yards per reception last season and will look to build on his burgeoning role as Joe Burrow’s trusted target out of the backfield. As of this writing, I still think Ja’Marr Chase will suit up, but if he doesn’t, I like this line even more, with additional targets spread throughout the rest of the team. Given the explosiveness of the Bengals’ offense, Brown’s prowess as a pass catcher, and a middling New England Patriots defense, I’m confident Chase will get plenty of opportunities to play and will outperform this line.

Jaylen Warren OVER 14.5 receiving yards (-115)

Dopp: From one tangled backfield to another, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a similar, but slightly better, situation than the Bengals. Najee Harris should handle the majority of the early work, and Warren should return to his rookie role of catching passes out of the backfield while filling in for Harris. Warren is poised to feast in the passing game after having a stellar rookie season that saw him turn 75 targets into 61 receptions for 370 receiving yards. In fact, there were only two games last season in which Warren didn’t have multiple receptions, and he topped that mark of 14.5 receiving yards in 12 of his 17 games as a rookie. I understand all the questions surrounding Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation, and it’s certainly far from ideal, but Warren showed too much ability in the backfield last season for the team to fail to utilize him at all. Given that that line is so low, I’m very confident Warren will eclipse that number against the Atlanta Falcons.

Wide Receiver Accessories

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Where should Malik Nabers be ranked among fantasy WRs?

Mike Clay explains where receiver Malik Nabers should be ranked in his first season with the Giants.

Malik Nabers 6+ receptions (-105)

Dopp: Nabers’ receiving line has moved around a few times, so we’ll lean toward a receptions bet. It’s harder to provide analytical evidence for this one, but my co-host Field Yates said it perfectly on Friday’s Fantasy Focus Football show: We expect Nabers to get the Zay Flowers treatment. In the NFL opener, Lamar Jackson locked in on one WR, and it was his explosive playmaker Flowers, who saw nine targets (truth is, it was more like 13-14 targets, but he had a bunch of those plays nullified due to offensive line penalties) and turned that into six receptions. The Giants should be in a similar situation with Nabers, who was drafted to help carry the offense after Saquon Barkley left. Daniel Jones doesn’t have a lot of trusted receivers behind Nabers, with Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, and Jalin Hyatt in line for targets, Nabers should probably see 8-12 targets as the Giants lean on him to help move the ball downfield. I’m nervous about taking a receiving yardage line that continues to fluctuate on ESPN BET, so I’m going to stick with a plus-money receiver prop. I understand if you want to see it before you buy it, but the Giants just retired the first number ever retired in NFL history for this rookie WR, something I don’t recall happening anywhere else in the NFL, so I’m getting caught up in the hype and betting Nabers will beat that number against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1.

Jameson Williams OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-120)

Lozere: It’s now or never for “Jamo.” Luckily for Detroit Lions superfan Daniel Dopp, the former Alabama standout with 4.3 speed has impressed throughout the summer, regularly earning praise from reporters and teammates alike. Expected to work as the team’s No. 2 WR, Williams is expected to draw a career-high number of targets. And in a game with the highest projected point total of the week (52.5), those looks could double his 3.4 average from last year. The Los Angeles Rams have allowed the 10th-most receptions of 20-plus yards (57) in 2023, increasing Williams’ chances of notching at least one game of note.

Darnell Mooney OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-135)

Lozere: It’s been a while since Mooney last had 1,000 receiving yards in Chicago with the Bears, but a change of scenery could be the catalyst for a rebound. The Atlanta Falcons signed the 26-year-old to a three-year, $39 million deal and all but avoided the receiver position in April’s draft, a testament to the team’s confidence in Mooney’s ability to dominate the No. 2 receiver role. With the highly accurate Kirk Cousins ​​(69.5 percent completions) under center and Joey Porter Jr. expected to follow Drake London, Mooney should shine in his Falcons debut at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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