Analysts continue to stimulate the alarm on the impact of Trump’s economic policies.
A new survey of 14 economists questioned by CNBC now predicts gross domestic product in the first quarter – the value of all goods and services produced in the United States – will increase 0.3%. In the first quarter of 2024, GDP increased by 2.4%.
Goldman Sachs economists lowered their GDP estimate on the first quarter to only 0.2%on Sunday, declaring that they expected the prices to be “more aggressive” than what could have been supposed. The company now expects GDP throughout the year to only 1.5%, compared to 2%; and increased the chances of a 35% recession against 20%.
Goldman said that the change reflected “the strong recent deterioration in the confidence of households and businesses, and the declarations of the White House officials indicating a greater desire to tolerate short -term economic weakness in the pursuit of their policies”.
The company has also lowered its expectations on the amount that S&P 500 companies would win this year due to “higher prices, lower economic growth and higher inflation that we have not assumed it before”. The bank sees the index to be finished the year around 5,700, or about 120 points higher than the place where it was negotiated on Monday.
At the Deutsche Bank, economists believe that Trump’s prices, if they were kept in place, would increase the American rate rate to “higher in the World War II”.
Last week, Trump announced its intention to impose prices on all automotive parts and automotive parts imported in the United States while details on the implementation of functions remain to be resolved, the announcement has plunged the stocks of automotive companies – and the sale continued on Monday, with General Motors shares down 1.3% and 1.1%. Stellantis, which now has the brands of the Chrysler group such as Dodge, Jeep and Ram, fell by almost 3%.
In a note to customers published on Monday, Dan Ives, managing director of Wedbush Securities, said that Trump automotive prices “will cause pure chaos to the global automotive industry” while increasing the cost of a typical vehicle sold in the United States by more than $ 10,000.
“We reiterate that the concept of an American car manufacturer with parts of the United States is a fictitious story that does not exist and would take years to make this concept a reality,” said Ives.
Unlike his first mandate, the president has shown much less desire to respond to investor market concerns and stocks. Trump above all moved the major resistance that his pricing plan has met in the business world and an increase in expectations among companies and consumers for an economic slowdown following new functions.
In an exclusive interview with NBC News on Sunday, Trump said that he “didn’t care” if car manufacturers increased their prices due to prices.
Later Sunday, he was asked about the growing threat of stagflation – faster inflation in the midst of lower growth, a scenario that declared an increasing number of analysts began to emerge.
“I haven’t heard this quarter for years,” he said. “I don’t know about this. … This country will explode. We are going to have boomtown. We will explode.”
The Trump administration remains unattained. In the weekend remarks, vice-president JD Vance repeated Trump’s assertion that the United States had turned into “piggy bank” in the world while declaring, at an inaccuracy, that middle-class wages have decreased.
“The days of closed factories, days when people cannot get a middle -class job in this country, they are finished,” said Vance.
