The rebuilt CAP-12 approaches the Sweet Spot quickly for a media rights agreement. Maybe at the end of the month, but probably at the end of April, according to sources, the conference should conclude an agreement for the next era.
At this stage, the emphasis is placed on the place where it started in September – to the question of members and in search of the eighth member of All -Sports.
Why not the other way around? Why not develop first, then find an agreement with the media? Because nowhere in the full scanning of possibilities, there is a school, or a collection of schools, which will significantly modify the value of the media of the conference rebuilt for 2026 and beyond.
At least, this is the case for This contract, according to several industry sources.
But what about the next offer?
This is a multidimensional calculation, people. The CAP-12 is looking for security at the moment, but it needs chips for the future.
UNLV makes sense because of geography – because it is right there – But the rebels are not the best bet for longer growth.
UNLV is the movement for 2025.
Texas State is the game for 2030.
Admittedly, we do not know what the landscape will look like in five or six years, when the PAC-12 starts to negotiate its next media agreement.
There could be no CAP-12.
There may not be a four power.
Or maybe many of the missing schools will return to a regional conference on the west coast.
The list of possibilities is both endless and, at a certain level, unknowable.
But combine the ACC regulations with Florida State and Clemson, the economic pressures create by the sharing of income and the expiration of several critical media contracts, including the Big Ten (2030) and the playoffs of university football (2032), and there is a good chance that university sports will look completely different in six or eight years.
The CAP-12 should act accordingly. Strategic decisions in the spring of 2025 must be made by thinking in the fall of 2030, by building the strongest and most precious football product.
From this point of view, the state of Texas is the easy call as a eighth full -time member.
The addition of the Metropolitan area of Las Vegas could provide a modest increase in value over time. (By value, we mean the widest possible scale, not only in dollars of the media.) It is already good in the imprint of the Reconted PAC-12, which extends from San Diego to Pullman with Fort Collins.
It is not because the UNLV is the best option to the west that the rebels are the best option for the PAC-12.
The schools of the American Athletic conference are also attractive targets, whether the accent is just put to the orientation or combination of Memphis, from southern Florida and Tulane. But unless the agreement with the PAC -12 media is much more than most industry experts – the expected range is 8 to 10 million dollars per school per year, according to sources – there will be little financial incentive for AAC schools to make the jump.
The economy of the state of Texas is much more manageable. It would cost much less to attract bobcats, which compete in the solar belt and suck at a higher level. In fact, the CAP-12 could offer a member on the one hand reduced income, thus creating more money for the seven football schools (and Gonzaga) which are committed for 2026.
Notable competitive fact: Texas State has displayed so many winning seasons (three) since its passage at the FBS level in 2012, the rebels have produced since 2000.
Unlike the UNLV, the bobcats would considerably expand the media footprint of the CAP-12, adding a campus in the central time zone to create more distribution windows.
And not just anywhere in the central time zone – in Texas.
Texas booming.
Texas loaded with talent.
Texas rich in oil.
Texas excavated in football.
More specifically, the bobcats are located in San Marcos, halfway between Austin and San Antonio on corridor i-35 which houses 4.5 million people.
If the essence of your strategy acquires tokens for 2030 – and if it is not the case with the PAC -12, something is wrong – then having a campus in Texas beats with a campus in Nevada. And it’s not close.
(The UNLV recently praised its growth in registration for students, which increased by 2% from one year to the next, on the basis of spring data. Texas state inscriptions in the same period increased by 5.9%.)
The hotline was essentially the same point on another Texas school two years ago, when the inherited version of the PAC-12 was looking for new members and an agreement with the media.
In an examination of SMU potential, we wrote:
“The conference must take into account the value of SMU when the next cycle of media rights ended (in the late 2020 or early 2030s), and it started the negotiation process again.”
Admittedly, SMU and Texas State are more different from those they are. But they are closer to each other in a long-haul potential than the options available for the PAC-12 this spring.
Yes, the trip would be sub -optimal – not for football programs, which charter flights, but for Olympic sports, which generally steal commercial.
The PAC-12 teams in competition in San Marcos would fly to Austin, 35 miles away. If the conference creates travel partners, the nearest campus would be the state of Colorado. From Fort Collins, the trip includes a one -hour bus trip to Denver International, a two -hour flight for Austin and 30 minutes by car from San Marcos.
(In Big Ten, it’s amateur time.)
The conference could continue a second school in Texas to join the bobcats and reduce travel requests. UTSA and Northern Texas immediately come to mind, in particular since the AAC media rights agreement allocates smaller actions to its new members than Memphis and Tulane.
That said, let’s be clear: the rebels would not be a bad addition to the PAC-12 rebuilt, although there are important complications at this stage with the contractual commitment of the school towards the Mountain West and a series of proceedings.
UNLV has potential; Las Vegas has value; And focus on a regional membership strategy has merit.
But the rebels should not be the highest objective of the PAC-12.
Texas State is the easy call.
Follow the money (oil), buy the chip and start preparing for 2030.
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