- Consensus estimate +160K vs. +175K previously (range +100K to +246K)
- July was +114K
- Private Consensus +139K vs. +148K previously
- Consensus estimate of unemployment rate at 4.2% against 4.3% previously
- Previous participation rate 62.6%
- Previous underemployment U6 7.8% v
- Average hourly wage year-on-year +3.7% versus +3.7% previously
- Average monthly hourly wage exp +0.3% against +0.3% previously
- Average weekly hours exp 34.3 against 34.2 previously
Figures released so far this month:
- ADP reports +99K vs. +122K previously – lowest level in three and a half years
- ISM services employment 50.2 vs. 51.1 (low but first consecutive figure above 50 since late 2023)
- ISM manufacturing employment is 46.0 vs. 43.4 previously
- Challenger cuts 75,891 jobs from 25,885,000 previously – highest level since 2009 (excluding 2020 pandemic)
- Philadelphia employment -5.7 vs. +15.2 previously
- Employment in the Empire -6.7 against -7.9 previously
- Initial jobless claims survey, week 233,000 vs. 245,000 the previous week
The August nonfarm payrolls report has a seasonal quirk: It has been below forecast in 17 of the past 23 years. It is worth noting, however, that the BLS could improve its seasonal adjustment methods, as the numbers have been higher than expected in the past two years, but only by 15,000 and 17,000, respectively. Over 20 years, the lower-than-expected numbers are split 70-30.
Another point to note is that the disappointing July jobs report may have been skewed lower by Hurricane Beryl and we may see some compensation for that this month.
The key currency pair to watch on the release is USD/JPY, which fell for three straight days after the release and is virtually flat on the year, erasing a significant 20-digit gain. With two-year yields now at 17-month lows, downward pressure is mounting.
USD/JPY Daily Rate
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