Oilers’ noisy summer peaks with Blues signings of Broberg, Holloway

The 2024 offseason has proven to be a cascade of headlines for Edmonton Oilers fans.

This year’s turnover in personnel and management overshadows even the incredible 2006 season, when Chris Pronger requested (and was granted) a trade from the team. That deal was completed just 14 days after the Oilers lost Game 7 to the Carolina Hurricanes.

As the summer of 2023 began, CEO Jeff Jackson was so active in his first calendar year with the team that fans welcomed a quiet August.

August was anything but quiet.

In the past month, the team has hired a new general manager (Stan Bowman), made progress in Leon Draisaitl’s contract negotiations and was surprised last week by a double offer from the St. Louis Blues. That was followed by two (rare) trades in August.

On Tuesday, the Oilers indicated that the two offers (Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway) would not be matched. In a statement from the Blues, full details of the deal (including Edmonton acquiring St. Louis’ 2028 third-round pick and unsigned 2023 fifth-round pick Paul Fischer from Edmonton for future considerations) were made public.

Fans got their first indication that the organization was headed in that direction when the club signed defenseman Ty Emberson and forward Vasily Podkolzin over the weekend.

The reason behind these moves is obvious. Once the Blues handed out offers to Broberg and Holloway, the primary value of those players – a low price/quality ratio relative to the salary cap – dissipated in an instant.

After that, the next logical step was to assess the cost of matching and decide whether the cost was worth it.

Oilers fans got their answer today.

By switching from Broberg and Holloway to Emberson and Podkolzin, how much of a gap has the team created?

The advantage of the salary cap

Edmonton’s 2024-25 roster model projected Broberg and Holloway would each receive just over $1 million against the salary cap.

When Broberg ($4.58 million AAV on a two-year deal) and Holloway ($2.29 million AAV, also two years) signed with St. Louis, Jackson and Bowman were forced to make some tough decisions.

The result was a trade of veteran defenseman Cody Ceci to the San Jose Sharks to reduce the salary cap, and the acquisition of two men who can replace players heading to St. Louis.

The savings the Oilers get from these moves are significant. For the first time since the Connor McDavid era began, management will have some wiggle room at the 2025 trade deadline (if they choose to stop making headlines by acquiring players before then) without worrying about the salary cap.

The Talent Gap (Emberson-Broberg)

Emberson is a promising young defenseman with very little NHL experience (30 games). He is 24 years old, 6-foot-2, and 193 pounds. In his draft year, Red Line Report called him a “terrific four-way skater” who can “get back to the plate quickly and make a powerful pass.”

His brief NHL career presents encouraging numbers compared to other Sharks defensemen in 2023-24.

Using Natural Stat Trick’s line tool, we can see Emberson’s impact on the ice at five-on-five and Emberson’s impact off the ice in game state.

All numbers five against five

It’s a small sample size (499 minutes) for Emberson, but the indicators are positive.

Puck IQ has more good news. Against elite competition, Emberson’s Dangerous Fenwick (equivalent to expected goals) has a 46.8 percent success rate against elite talent, 10.6 percent higher than his Sharks defensive teammates.

Emberson can accurately be described as a less established HR version of Broberg.

Emberson’s (and Broberg’s) small sample size makes it difficult for anyone to argue that one player is, in fact, a better bet for the future than the other. We can say, based on talent and the 2024-25 salary cap ($950,000), that Emberson is a better fit for Edmonton and is in Broberg’s talent range (without the draft pedigree).

The Talent Gap (Podkolzin-Holloway)

A more direct comparison can be made between the two forwards involved in the trades this week.

Holloway is a speedy winger with some two-way playmaking skills and a player who hasn’t been able to provide the kind of offense a team hopes to see from a No. 14 overall pick (2020).

Podkolzin was picked a year earlier (2019) and a few spots higher (No. 10) but the rest of Holloway’s profile fits him like a glove.

The biggest difference is that Podkolzin was seen as a replaceable piece by the Canucks, while the Oilers changed their minds about Holloway only after the salary cap hike made him less valuable.

Here’s the story of the two players’ tape over the last three seasons combined.

All five-on-five numbers, via Natural Stat Trick

The benefit of a three-year span is that we get to see a broad sample size. In both men’s cases, there are things to like and concerns about offensive ability.

Holloway is the better player today, and his most recent season was much better than Podkolzin’s in Vancouver.

In 2023-24, Holloway scored 1.14 points per 60 at five-on-five, compared to Podkolzin who barely showed up (0.62) as an offensive player.

Podkolzin played just 19 games for Vancouver, averaging just over 10 minutes per game. Holloway played 38, averaging 11 minutes per game (all figures are five-on-five).

Unlike the defensive comparison, the math shows that Holloway is the better player and should have a stronger career. You can never be sure, and the Oilers could tap into Podkolzin’s considerable potential, but as of now, there is a talent gap between these two forwards that is worth noting.

The advantage of the ceiling

A major factor in the Oilers’ decision not to match the dual offers is salary cap room.

According to PuckPedia, Edmonton could enter the 2024-25 season with a salary cap of $946,000, 21 players and Evander Kane on injured reserve. This would allow the team to accumulate space under the salary cap.

Or the Oilers could put Kane on LTIR, allowing the club to go $5 million over the cap while Kane is unavailable.

The Oilers are likely to stock their defense with what’s currently on the roster, with an eye toward a bold move as the trade deadline approaches.

If Jackson and Bowman arrive at the 2025 deadline with massive cap room and a willingness to take money, the talent pool available among non-contenders should be deep at that point.

The essentials

Management made itself vulnerable to a bid by coming out aggressively on July 1. That was seen as a strength at the time, but the dual bids sent the team into a tailspin, leading to today’s news.

It’s fair to criticize the team’s brash approach to free agency on July 1. Spending heavily on older players left little room for younger ones, and it was clear that both Broberg and Holloway were going to be pressured to sign for minimal raises.

It’s a part of the Oilers’ game plan that should be reevaluated.

It’s also worth noting that neither player leaving today is a difference maker right now. It’s been five years since Broberg was drafted and he remains a relative unknown in the NHL. Holloway is on a roll four seasons after his name was called.

Edmonton won’t be losing Evan Bouchard today. He’s the only player selected after McDavid who has reached an impact level during his time with the organization.

First reaction to this week? Jackson and Bowman handled a difficult situation creatively. This is a helpful roster adjustment; it positions the team well after what was essentially a two-for-two trade.

Edmonton gets a defenseman who could be as good as Broberg, gives up talent at forward and gains a lot of cap space.

The only concern for fans today: Trading Ceci raises some questions about the team’s depth on defense. The top pair (Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard) may have to be split up in order to strengthen the rest of the group.

Veterans Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak become even more important, with young Emberson poised to enjoy miles of daylight if he can find his groove in his new hockey city.

Oilers fans head into September exhausted from their Stanley Cup run, the shock and awe of the draft and free agency, and now a week of offer-squad shenanigans.

Maybe things will be calmer by September. Don’t count on it.

(Photo by Dylan Holloway: Cooper Neill/Getty Images)