Oil oil, Alberta, Canada
Norm Betts | Bloomberg | Getty images
Oil prices are expected to fall in the longer term after the initial leap after the implementation by President Donald Trump high prices in Canada, Mexico and China, industry observers said.
During the weekend, Trump followed his 25% prices of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% of goods on goods from China. Canada’s energy resources will be subjected to a less than 10%rate.
The American intermediary of West Texas increased by 1.75% to $ 73.8 per barrel, while the term contracts on American petrol also climbed. RBOB’s long -term contracts increased 2.81% to $ 2.11 per gallon. The international gross Brent climbed 0.71% to $ 76.21 per barrel.
According to the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration, American imports of Canadian crude oil reached a record of 4.3 million barrels per day in July 2024, following the expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline of Canada. Canada represented approximately 62% of all US imports of crude oil in the first 10 months of last year, while Mexico represented around 7% in the same period.
While the Brutes markets will see higher prices and consumers will do more for the costs of short -term fuel and diesel, the peak is only temporary, oil observers told CNBC.
“While the initial movement on crude oil is up, a cycle of tariffs and reprisals in Canada, Mexico, China and perhaps others in the future could lead to a recession Global, causing the fall in oil prices, “said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNBC.
The prices have not resulted in any oil supply and will lead to redistribution of supplies while Mexico and Canada seek to divert their volumes to Europe and Asia, added Lipow. Meanwhile, American refiners seek to treat more domestic crude oil while looking for alternatives in the Middle East.
Canada to bring the weight
Canada and Mexico have a limited spare refining capacity or alternative export routes, and prices will probably push oil producers in both countries in high price discounts, said Saul Kavonic, head of research On energy at the MST marquee.
Canadian oil producers will eventually end the weight of the burden of prices with a discount from $ 3 to $ 4 per barrel on Canadian gross given the limited alternative export markets, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note dated on Sunday.
In the medium term, Goldman analysts also expect general prices to have an impact on world GDP as well as oil demand, weighing down oil prices.
In addition, world oil prices could fall more after the next quarter, because prices aggravate the image of demand and OPEC + the growing Trump pressure faces to reverse the production cuts, said Kavonic. Trump recently said that he urged Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce oil prices.
The Cartel Oil, which should meet on Monday, has not yet responded to Trump’s request. OPEC + retained 2.2 million barrels per day on the world market for prices. In December, the group decided to extend its production cuts at least in March 2025 before gradually eliminating them over a year.
