NZDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting, with virtually no change in its statement. The Dot Plot still shows three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections have been improved with higher growth and inflation and lower unemployment.
• U.S. first-quarter GDP surprisingly beat expectations, although its main components nonetheless showed a strong economy.
• The US PCE was in line with expectations.
• U.S. NFP beat expectations across the board, although average hourly earnings were in line with forecasts.
• US April PMIs missed expectations, with commentary pointing to weaker inflationary pressures but also an increase in layoffs.
• The market expects a first rate cut in September.

CAD

• The RBNZ kept its policy rate unchanged as expected, with no changes, as the central bank continued to state that the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for an extended period.
• The latest New Zealand inflation data is in line with expectations and supports the RBNZ’s patient stance.
• The labor market report beat expectations across the board with a lower-than-expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
• The manufacturing PMI improved in February, remaining in contraction while the services PMI increased further, while maintaining its expansion.
• The market expects a first decline in August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeline

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD has managed to erase most of the losses from the US CPI release and has almost reached key trendline resistance around the 0.60 handle, where we also had the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for the confluence. Price was unable to come into play since the pair reversed before this. We could return to support at 0.5860, but sellers will need to break through some key levels on shorter time frames to continue pushing lower.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that price has rebounded from the key support area around the 0.5920 level, where buyers stepped in with a set risk below to position themselves for a return to the line. main trend by aiming for a breakout above. Sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price decline to increase bearish bets to support at 0.5860.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe

On the hourly chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD for some time as it rallied to the main trendline. This is usually a sign of weakening momentum, often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, this led to a pullback into the support zone, but a break below would confirm a reversal. This week is rich in economic data that will likely give us direction for the coming weeks.

Events to come

Today we have the first quarter US Employment Cost Index and the Consumer Confidence Report. Tomorrow we have New Zealand employment data, and later today US ADP, ISM manufacturing PMI, job openings and the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday we will see the latest figures for jobless claims in the United States. On Friday, we conclude the week with the American NFP and the ISM Services PMI.