NZDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting, with virtually no change in its statement. The Dot Plot showed three more rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were improved with higher growth and inflation and lower unemployment.
• The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI was in line with forecasts.
• U.S. NFP beat expectations across the board, although average hourly earnings were in line with forecasts.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI significantly exceeded expectations, as the price component continued to rise, while the US ISM Services PMI missed expectations, with the price index falling to a 4-year low.
• U.S. retail sales far exceeded expectations across the board, with positive revisions from previous figures.
• The market now expects a first rate cut in September.

CAD

• The RBNZ kept its policy rate unchanged as expected, with no changes, as the central bank continued to state that the OCR will need to remain at a restrictive level for an extended period.
• The latest New Zealand inflation data is in line with expectations and supports the RBNZ’s patient stance.
• The labor market report beat expectations across the board, with a lower-than-expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
• The manufacturing PMI improved in February, remaining in contraction while the services PMI increased further, while maintaining its expansion.
• The market expects a first decline in August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeline

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD is struggling to break below the key support zone around the 0.5870 level. This is where we can expect buyers to pile in with defined risk below the zone to position themselves for a rally towards the main trendline. Sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price drop to increase bearish bets to the low at 0.5780, although they will have a much better risk of rewarding the setup around the trendline where they will also find the 61.8% Fibonacci. retracement level for the confluence.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart we can see that we had a downward spike this evening following the announcement of Israeli retaliation against Iran, but the market completely erased the move as Iran downplayed the airstrikes. We can also notice that we have a strong divergence with the MACD, which is usually a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be a signal of a larger reversal, and it could even end up being a double bottom with the main trendline as the target. In fact, buyers will likely increase their bullish bets on the main trendline if price were to break above the neckline at 0.5933.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe

On the hourly chart we can more clearly see the divergence with the MACD occurring from the 0.60 level. We can also notice that we have a minor resistance area around the 0.59 handle where we can also find the red moving average 21 for the confluence. This is where sellers are likely to step in with a set risk above the level to position themselves for a breakout below the key support zone. Buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price move higher to increase bullish bets to new highs.