At the start of the North American session, the NZD is the strongest and the dollar the weakest of the major currencies. Today, US yields are falling after rising yesterday and closing at their highest level since November 24. The economic calendar is today empty of any economic data. The US Treasury will auction 3-year bonds. Tomorrow, the Treasury will auction 10-year bonds and on Thursday 30-year bonds.
There was a report that the Bank of Japan would increase its inflation projections after recent wage negotiations.
Looking ahead, the RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged when it announces its decision tomorrow in New Zealand (at 10 p.m. ET). US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET, with an expected rise of 0.3% for both the overall and the Consumer Price Index. core metrics and annual yield up to 3.4% from 3.2% last month. The Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET (no change expected).
On Thursday later this week, the ECB will announce its rate decision focusing on whether the ECB will give any hints for a rate cut in June. The US PPI will also be released on Thursday, which has taken on added importance due to the inclusion of components in the PCE inflation report, which is the Fed’s “preferred inflation measure”.
Crude oil is little changed as the geopolitical roller coaster continues in Israel over whether or not they will reach a ceasefire agreement, or whether Israel will invade Rafah in the Gaza Strip. The latest trend is not an agreement with Israel which still points to an assault on Rafah.
U.S. stocks are up slightly in premarket trading. Bitcoin is down after yesterday’s rise.
A look at other markets at the start of the North American session currently shows:
- Crude oil is trading down four cents at $86.32. Yesterday at this time the price was $86.30
- Gold is trading up $15.27 or 0.66% at $2,354.30. At this time yesterday, the price was $2,337.23.
- Silver is trading up $0.24 or 0.88% at $28.06. Yesterday at this time the price was $27.61
- Bitcoin is currently trading at $70,896. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $72,348.
In pre-marketing, the main indices are moving upwards after an almost unchanged result compared to yesterday’s trading.
- Dow Industrial Average futures imply a gain of 51 points. Yesterday, the index fell -11.24 points or -0.03% to 38892.81
- S&P futures imply a gain of. 10.86 points. Yesterday, the index -1.97 points or -0.04% at 502.38
- Nasdaq futures imply a gain of 48 points. Yesterday, the index rose 5.43 points or 0.03% to 16253.96
European indices are mostly down:
- German DAX, -0.54%
- CAC France, -0.29%
- British FTSE 100, +0.18%
- Spanish ibex, -0.19%
- Italian FTSE MIB, -0.50% (delayed by 10 minutes)
Stocks in Asia-Pacific markets were down:
- Japanese Nikkei 225, +1.08%
- Chinese Shanghai Composite Index, +0.05%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, +0.57%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX index was 0.45%
On the US debt market, yields are almost unchanged:
- 2-year return 4.762%, -2.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was 4.790%
- 5-year yield 4.393%, -4.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4,450%
- 10-year yield 4.381%, -4.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was 4.458%
- Yield at 30 years 4.517%, -3.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was 4.597%
Looking at Treasury yield curve spreads:
- The 2-10 year spread is -38.0 basis points. As of this time Friday, the spread was -32.9 basis points.
- The 2-30 year spread stands at -24.3 basis points. As of this time Friday, the spread was -19.2 basis points.
European benchmark yields are lower:
European benchmark 10-year yields are falling
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