The NZD is the strongest and the USD the weakest at the start of the North American session.
Yesterday, Chairman Powell (and Fed Governor Jefferson) refused to state that rate cuts would likely be appropriate this year (omitting it is as good as saying it), which constitutes a change of state. mind of the Fed. The President and Vice President say inflation is not improving. The market now sees September as the month when the Fed could cut rates.
In the European morning session today, UK consumer price inflation fell to 3.2% year-on-year, the lowest rate in more than two years and lower from 3.4% in February. This decline is mainly explained by a slower rise in food prices compared to the previous year. However, fuel prices have increased. Core inflation also fell to 4.2% from 4.5% in February. Earlier this week, jobs data showed a slowdown in base wage growth. The Bank of England has kept interest rates at their highest level since 2008. Bailey, of the Bank of England, recently said that the British economy was approaching a stage where interest rates could begin to be reduced, observing strong signs of disinflation with full employment.
Weekly US mortgage data has been released. Applications (and all other components) increased despite higher rates:.
- Mortgage refinancing index: Increased from 498.3 to 500.7 (stronger)
- Purchase index: Increased from 138.7 to 145.6 (stronger)
- US Mortgage Market Index: Increased from 195.7 to 202.1 (stronger)
- Mortgage loan applications: Sautéed at 3.3% versus 0.1% (significantly stronger)
- Mortgage rate over 30 years: Increased from 7.01% to 7.13%
Affordability is at its lowest level since 1980.
US stocks are higher. US yields were little changed.
In Israel, it was calm. Yesterday, Israel threatened to retaliate in some form against Iran.
Crude oil is falling today. Private stocks data released last night showed a stronger-than-expected increase of 4.09 million barrels, but gasoline and distillates both posted declines. The EIA will release its inventory data at 10:30 a.m. with expectations of an accumulation of 1.373 million crude oil inventories. Gasoline is expected to show a decline of -0.889M. Yesterday’s private data arrived at:
A look at other markets at the start of the North American session currently shows this. :
- Crude oil is trading down $0.57 or -0.67% at $84.80. At this time yesterday, the price was $84.96.
- Gold is trading up $5.16 or 0.21% at $2,387.80. At this time yesterday, the price was $2,372.82.
- Silver is trading up $0.40 or 1.41% at $28.46. At this time yesterday, the price was $28.26.
- Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,846, which is not far from yesterday’s level at the same time. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,980.
In pre-market, the main indices are trading on the rise:
- Dow Industrial Average futures imply a gain of 85.03 points. Yesterday, the index gained 63.86 points or 0.17% to 37798.98 (thanks to a 6% gain in UnitedHealth).
- S&P futures imply a gain of 15.34 points. Yesterday, the index fell minus 10.41.4 -0.21% to 505140
- Nasdaq futures imply a gain of 45.10 points. Yesterday, the index fell -19.77 points or -0.12% to 15865.25
European indices are trading higher:
- German DAX, +0.47%
- CAC France, +1.29%
- Britain’s FTSE 100 was 0.66%
- Spanish ibex, +1.34%
- Italian FTSE MIB, +1.07% (delayed by 10 minutes)
Stocks in Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower:
- The Japanese Nikkei 225, but up 1.32%
- Chinese Shanghai Composite Index, +2.14%
- Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, +0.02%
- Australian S&P/ASX index, -0.09%
In the US debt market, yields are slightly higher. Yields rose yesterday as flight to safety flows reversed and then retail sales strengthened.
- 2-year yield 4.964%, unchanged. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.944%
- 5-year yield 4.674%, -0.7 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.658%
- 10-year yield 4.651%, -0.6 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.682%
- Yield at 30 years 4.757% unchanged. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.752%
Looking at Treasury yield curve spreads, the state of the yield curve over the last 24 hours:
- The 2-10 year gap stands at -31.1 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was -30.1 basis points.
- The 2-30 year gap is -20.8 basis points. As of this time Friday, the spread was -19.2 basis points.
European 10-year benchmark yields are higher:
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