Nuggets expect Celtics to take 50 3-pointers, ‘no matter what you do’

The last two NBA champions couldn’t be more different when it comes to the shots they prefer to make.

The Boston Celtics comfortably led the league in 3 point attempts per game with 42.5 last season, won their 18th banner, then took the trend to new extremes. They are averaging 50.2 attempts this season, the most in NBA history and six more than any other team in 2024-25.

The Denver Nuggets are also leaning more on their biggest strength. They lead the league in points in the paint with 58.8 per game. In half-court attack, they are playing more than ever with Nikola Jokic. He touches the ball 110.4 times per night, which is 10 more than his total from last season in the NBA. In transition, they send rams to the edge of Christian Braun and Russell Westbrook. They are the only team with an average of 20 on quick blocks.

The two recent champions are elite at what they do best.

The only problem Denver might face Tuesday (8 p.m., TNT) is math.

Boston’s offensive focal point is worth three points. The one in Denver is worth two.

The Nuggets (20-14) continue to average the fewest 3-point attempts in the NBA, with 31.1, which is almost exactly in line with the last two seasons. Still, they have the fourth-best offensive rating in the league, scoring 117 points per 100 possessions. They remain afloat in the loaded Western Conference in fourth place (Monday) despite wildly inconsistent defensive efforts from night to night.

But against teams as perimeter-dependent as Boston, the math can backfire. That was certainly the case when Denver faced Cleveland twice in December. The Cavaliers rank fifth in 3-point attempts, and they’ve taken a 48 lead in both matchups.

The Nuggets attempted 55 between those two games combined. They were swept in the season series by a total of 26 points. Both games were within their reach, but they lost from the 3-point line by 72.

The Celtics are a more extreme manifestation of the same threat. In late December, Malone compared the two Eastern Conference powers when he acknowledged that the league’s coaches might have to start living with what opponents generate at the rim in order to avoid 3s.

“Some of those guards, the pull-up three, become like a layup for guys,” Malone said then, adding that “Boston has the luxury of having five 3-point shooters on the court when they are in good health.

This would be the starting lineup that guided Boston for most of last season to a championship: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis. But even with Brown and Holiday struggling off the perimeter this season, the Celtics have lethal options coming off the bench. Payton Pritchard’s 42.4% clip is the best in the NBA among all players who have attempted 245 or more 3s. He took 302.

As the Nuggets prepared to take on the challenge with practice Monday, acceptance was part of the message.

“No matter what you do, they’ll win 50 3s. I really believe that,” Malone said. “Nineteen of their 50 3s that they take are off the bounce. They do pull-up 3s in transition. They shoot pull-up 3s in pick-and-rolls. That’s their thing offensively. “We’re just going to put a lot of 3s.” …And they roll the same number of 3s in wins and losses. But their percentage is very different. The fact is they’re going to win 50. That’s how they’re wired. But it is the quality of three that they rise. You cannot be on the floor inside the 3-point line in transition. In pick-and-rolls, you can’t be on the court and give Tatum, Brown, Pritchard, Holiday (and) White easy walk-up 3s.

Against most teams, Malone likes to mix up defensive coverages. He often emphasizes the importance of giving a different look to an opposing star player. When the Nuggets played the Spurs last weekend, they switched more frequently than usual. When they pulled off a comeback win in Sacramento last month, they upset the Kings by driving into a zone in the fourth quarter.

But how much can the Nuggets afford to mix things up against a team like Boston? If Jokic doesn’t defend every pick-and-roll at the screen, poor screen navigation by Denver’s guards could result in a barrage of pull-ups, as Malone alluded to Monday.

“When you’re at (screen) level and they have a roll… you need someone to take that role,” the 10th-year coach said in December. “That leaves one guy to guard two, and that’s where you have to have KYP (know your personnel) discipline and really just a tremendous fly mentality, where it might not always be perfect, but when you work hard and give second and third effort, good things will happen.

Denver was the only team to sweep its series against Boston in 2023-24. In both wins, the Nuggets held the eventual champions below their season average in 3-pointers — even when the attempts were dizzying. This year, Boston goes from 16.5 to 18.4 3s per game (36.7%).

If both teams attempt their standard number of 3s and both teams convert with league average efficiency (35.9%), the Celtics will outscore the Nuggets by 21 points from beyond the arc.

“You’re not going to be able to stop them from shooting them,” Russell Westbrook said. “But you just have to be able to make difficult shots. That’s it. Give them tough shots and bounce the ball. And then do what we do.

Gordon remains absent

Aaron Gordon won’t play against the Celtics, but he participated in some practice games Monday, Malone said. The power forward has missed Denver’s last six games with a right calf strain, which also caused him to miss 11 games earlier in the season.

“I’m not sure about the Clippers game (Wednesday) or the Brooklyn game (Friday),” Malone said. “But all I know is that today was a positive day. A step in the right direction. I asked him during training how he felt, and he said he felt really good. So I hope that when he wakes up tomorrow – because this is the most he’s done in a while – when he wakes up, I hope he feels just as good.

Elsewhere around the league, ESPN reported that Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving will miss at least a week or two with a back injury, meaning Dallas could be without Luka Doncic and Irving when they visit of the Nuggets for two games starting Sunday.

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