NPR shopped at Walmart to track price inflation: NPR

LIBERTY COUNTY, Ga. — Ask almost any shopper outside this sprawling Walmart southeast of Savannah, and they’ll tell you about rising prices.

“Meat is going up. Milk, eggs, everything is going up,” says Cicely Gardner, wheeling a cart with donuts into the parking lot.

But wait. The inflation rate has slowed over the past two years and not everything is increasing prices. So why does paying at the register still cause such heartburn? What gives?

NPR went to America’s most popular retailer to answer that question. For six years, we tracked the prices of dozens of items at this same Walmart supermarket. And here’s what we learned during our last visit, in December.

On average, prices increased by 0.7% last year

NPR’s list includes 96 items from virtually every Walmart aisle: chips and vegetables, shampoo and T-shirts, dog food and paper towels. To account for changes in package size, we focus on unit price, typically per ounce, whether toothpaste in a tube or soup in a can.

Over the course of 2024, tracked prices have only increased by an average of 0.7%. – much lower than overall annual inflation, which was 2.7% in November. (December inflation data will be released on Wednesday.)

Indeed, exactly half of our tracked prices remained the same from December 2023 to December 2024 – a notable relief after the COVID-19 pandemic, when most prices jumped year over year due to disruptions in supply chains and labor markets.

Twenty-one items in NPR’s shopping cart became cheaper over the year, including garlic, bananas and salmon. Twenty-seven other products became more expensive, including eggs, ground beef and laundry detergent.

The five-year view is much more painful

The items in NPR’s cart have been significantly more expensive since mid-2019, our last check before the pandemic. On average, these tracked prices have increased by about 25%. And that’s not far from federal inflation data: In total, U.S. prices have increased 23% since 2019.

For example, a 4-pound bag of Domino’s Sugar now costs $4.46. That’s 74% more than when NPR visited Walmart in 2019. A dozen eggs cost $4.90, 83% more than five years ago. Tide liquid laundry detergent now comes in a smaller container — 84 ounces instead of 100 ounces — but costs $1 more, in a classic case of shrinkage. Regular family errands add up.

In 2019, NPR’s visit to this suburban Walmart, near a major military base, focused on the impact of then-President Donald Trump’s trade war with China. Our basket was smaller, filled with many products imported or made with imported parts. Only a few of these items have now become cheaper, including frozen shrimp, swai fish and, most dramatically, screwdrivers. (Walmart rebranded and the price is now 60% lower than it was.)

2019 prices will remain in the past

Historically, large price increases are rarely followed by equally large price drops. Indeed, seismic shifts in the global economy cannot simply be undone.

For example, it still costs more than in 2019 to ship products across the world. It costs more to fertilize the soil where our food grows because Russia is one of the largest exporters of fertilizer. Prices of paper and corrugated cardboard used in packaging have increased. President Biden has largely maintained Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports, meaning American companies are paying higher import fees — and passing on some of those costs to buyers.

Stores, factories, farms and warehouses pay more for utilities and insurance. Gasoline prices affect the cost of trucking. American wages, on average, have outpaced inflation for more than a year and a half, with some wage increases affecting the costs of manufacturing, packaging, selling and delivering our purchases.

Certain products – such as eggs, beef, chocolate and coffee – have faced specific problems. Bird flu cases continued in chickens and cows. Dairy and beef farmers also point out that droughts increase the cost of animal feed. Extreme weather conditions have damaged coffee and cocoa crops, leading to record wholesale prices.

Here’s what Walmart and manufacturers had to say

NPR asked the companies that make the items in our basket to explain their price increases. Some did not respond, including PepsiCo’s Frito-Lay, Eggland’s Best and Unilever, which makes Dove, Degree and Vaseline. And among those who responded, we heard a common refrain: It just costs more to make things.

Domino sugar maker ASR Group sent a detailed list of price increases it has faced since the start of the pandemic: general cargo transportation costs up 19%, deep sea shipping up 45% , rail freight transport by 17%, salaries. 15%.

General Mills, whose Yoplait yogurt pot is 17 cents (or 28%) more expensive than it was in mid-2019, said dairy inflation is worse than general inflation.

A 16-ounce jar of Jif peanut butter costs 90 cents (or 41%) more than it did in mid-2019; its manufacturer, JM Smucker, said prices for shelled peanuts had increased about 44 percent.

Welch’s, whose grape jelly has grown nearly 68% since mid-2019, said many of its cooperative’s farmers were already facing the pandemic in financial distress, prompting the company to “increase the producer income” to support these family farms.

Many brands have also said Walmart is the final arbiter of prices on their shelves.

Walmart has the power to sell certain popular items at break-even prices or even below cost, making up for lost profits by charging a little more for other products. But overall, supermarket prices are a complex amalgam of expenses and markups from manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers, as they respond to myriad factors, including harvests, seasons and shopper loyalty.

Walmart, as the largest U.S. retailer, tends to get the cheapest deals from suppliers. In November, Walmart’s CEO said the chain had reduced prices on 6,000 items, half of which were groceries. Walmart’s size also allows it to keep prices as stable as possible, which is one of the main reasons NPR chose the chain for this project.

“We are committed to providing a low-cost, everyday experience, both in-store and online,” a Walmart representative said in a written statement to NPR, “with the goal of having the lowest price on a cart of products over time.

Credit: Research and analysis by Alina Selyukh/NPR. Graphics by Juweek Adolphe/NPR