Notable Super Bowl LVII Bets
Caesars Sportsbook’s 22-page Super Bowl betting menu was created by more than a dozen bettors last Monday night over pizza and wings at an employee’s home in Las Vegas.
About 60% of the odds on more than 2,000 different betting options on Sunday’s Kansas City Chiefs-Philadelphia Eagles game were produced during the five-hour meeting at the residence of Caesars Sportsbook assistant manager Adam Pullen, a veteran Super Bowl prop odds.
What else ? Longest field goal yards or total points scored. The over/under on lower third conversions is 10.5, most favored. Will a fumble be lost in the second half plus extra time? The “no” is a small favorite. Will there be overtime? You can get around 9-1 on the “yes”, while Caesars charges bettors $5,000 for a chance to win $100 betting on no overtime.
Eventually, in states that allow it, the plus/minus over the duration of the national anthem will be displayed, along with the color of Gatorade that will be awarded to the winning coach. Even more obscure prop bets can be found at offshore sportsbooks, which are not subject to as strict regulatory scrutiny as licensed sportsbooks in the United States. For example, at an offshore sportsbook, you can bet on the video clip that Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni will show his team before the Super Bowl.
Pullen at Caesars uses a database of prop bets from previous Super Bowls to create a template for the betting menu, then adds new options based on the game and specific scenarios for the game of the year.
“There are props that draw almost nothing, but you don’t want to take them off, if it’s easy to raise the price,” Pullen told ESPN. “We rarely get rid of things, almost never. But we always add to them.”
Punters showed up at Pullen with their laptops and spreadsheets around 5:30 p.m. Pullen facilitated the conversation during the props night, asking bettors in attendance for their thoughts on each of the bets. He’s quick to acknowledge that much of the odds-making process isn’t rocket science.
“The ones that are always the most difficult to do are the ones that take into account the number of players to have a rushing attempt or the number of players to have a reception for each team, because you have to look at the game plan,” said pullen. “You look at how they did in the regular season and how they did in the playoffs in terms of receptions. Are they using the running game more than they did in the regular season? Those are the ones which year after year always take longer to find than any of the others.These are the ones that have been the most debated.
Caesars released its first batch of Super Bowl props on Tuesday, with more hitting the board throughout the week. Professional bettors and customers whose action is respected by sports betting make up the bulk of the early action on Super Bowl props. Among the prop bets targeted by the pros was one based on the Eagles’ famous return pass to quarterback Nick Foles, known as the “Philly Special” in their Super Bowl win over the New England Patriots in 2018. Caesars offered a yes/no prop on whether a quarterback will have a reception in the game. The yes opened as an underdog at +450 and the no at -650. Money poured in on the ‘no’, including a $13,000 bet by a client in New York, who placed odds of -650 for a chance to net $2,000. The odds of a “no” have almost doubled, with the price rising to -1,200.
“The Sharps are going to bet on the no, but we’re going to want them to win because if the quarterback catches a touchdown pass or an offensive lineman or a defensive player scores a touchdown, we’re going to get buried. “, Pullen said. “The Sharps usually bet no and under, and the public usually bets yes and over.”
Betting Super Bowl LVII: Everything you need to know to bet Eagles-Chiefs
Reservation of accessories in the past
Ed Salmons, vice president of risk for the SuperBook, has been making and booking Super Bowl prop bets in Las Vegas for more than 30 years, including days before the internet became widely available.
Salmons remembers booking Super Bowls in the 1980s at the Imperial Palace casino in Las Vegas. There was a subscription sports ticker in the back room for quick Internet stats on Super Bowl Sunday, but it was a time-consuming event that regularly caused disputes between bettors and bookmakers over whether a player had actually played in the game.
“Just getting an official score with play-by-play, showing you who played was hard to come by at the time,” Salmons recalled. “We used to save games in case anyone had a question [about a prop]and we would go back and watch the tape to make sure the player had played it.”
Even though there were far fewer prop bets on offer in the 80s and 90s, when the internet was non-existent or in its infancy, scoring bets took hours. Salmons estimated it would take three hours after the match ended before he finished noting all prop bets. Now, however, Salmons said the grading process, thanks to better technology and more manpower, is much more efficient.
“We literally start with the coin toss,” Salmons said. “From there, the opening kickoff, on which there’s a bunch of props. It starts off crazy. Usually the first five to 10 players on each team, there’s a million props worth noting. Games go faster than we can rate them. We’re doing the best we can with that. I’d say now we’re at the point where about 45 minutes into the game, we’ve got everything There was a time when it took two or three hours after the game for everything to be noted.”