“Not worth the bet before income,” explains Jefferies about Palantir Stock

Palanter (Nasdaq: Pltr)) Actions increased by 393% ginormous in the past year, making it one of the largest winners on the market. If it is true that its AIP offering (AI platform) leaves the company well positioned in the AI ​​game, it is sure to say that a lot of media threw has also played its role in the pipeline.

With the company Big Data which should publish its results of the fourth quarter on Monday, February 3, this is a point taken up by Jefferies Brenties analyst, who highlights what has become a monstrous evaluation.

“At 50x NTM REV, PLTR is the name of the most expensive software and> 2x the next highest peer,” said 5 -star analyst. “The 4Q configuration will be difficult because PLTR is running for easy compositions and any sign of non -accelerator growth could cause additional multiple compression.”

Thill thinks that Palant has benefited from easier comps from year to year from 3T23, as well as the growing momentum of AIP, which has contributed to faster growth until 3T24. However, from the fourth quarter, Y / Y comparisons will become much more difficult – for example, the growth of American commercial income will be compared to a much higher growth rate of 70% (against 33%), and growth total income will take place against 20 % (compared to 17 %). Given these higher benchmarks, it will be much more difficult for Palantant to maintain or accelerate its growth.

Meanwhile, EV / NTM income from Palantir (company value at Net-12 months) compressed 5% this year, going from 52x to 50x, after having experienced a 282% expansion in 2024. Extreme growth in multiple evaluation took place during the bubble cocovated, when strong growth companies such as Snowflake, Crowdstrike and Datadog have seen their evaluation. “However,” continues Thill, “we are now in a more normalized macro environment, and we believe that all negative factors (deceleration growth, changing interest rate, media threshing turns, sale of initiates, etc.) compress.”

According to Thill’s calculations, even if Palantant manages to accelerate its growth to 50% per year, it should always be negotiated to a multiple EV / Revenue of 13.5x in 2028 just to maintain its current course. This would make it one of the most expensive software stocks, even in four years. To achieve an increase in the course of the action by 20%, Palantir should be negotiated to a multiple of 16x.

The fundamentals could “remain robust”, but with the evaluation completely out of control, Thill PLTr rate shares a sub-performance (that is to say sell), as well as a price objective of $ 28. The figure represents a possible drawback of 65% in the next 12 months. (To look at Thill’s history, click here)

Thill is joined by 5 other analysts from Camp Bear and with 9 additional wedges and 2 purchases, PLTT Stock requests a deduction consensus note. This could as well be a sale, however, considering that the average price objective of $ 51.50 implies that the shares will withdraw from ~ 38% in the coming months. (See Forecast of palantant actions))

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Warning: The opinions expressed in this article are only those of the featured analyst. Content is intended to be used for information only. It is very important to do your own analysis before investing.