Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are in a tight matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars in the wild-card game. Jason Miller/Getty Images
The Athletic covers live Bills vs. Jaguars And 49ers vs. Eagles of the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs.
Welcome to one of the most unpredictable and wide-open weeks we’ve seen in years. Some of the usual suspects are there, but the AFC doesn’t have a clear favorite in this round, and two of the three NFC games are also close.
Nonetheless, we do have some examples of value on the betting table when we look at spreads and game totals.
I developed an NFL projection model that uses play-by-play data to map potential game outcomes for each NFL team. These projections are adjusted based on how much time the opponent spends and wastes before coughing up the expected number of points per game for offense and defense.
From there I can plug these values into the model and get a expected and total spread for every game of the NFL season. Below you’ll find those projections compared to the odds on BetMGM.
The model is reversed from the Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars odds, favoring the Jags by one point, instead of the Bills, and it draws under BetMGM’s total. He also projects the Carolina Panthers to cover the Los Angeles Rams and the Chicago Bears to cover the Green Bay Packers.
