There were only a few upsets in NFL Week 6, but Team SI managed to lock down two of them. Gilberto Manzano made his pick on the Falcons at +188 to upset the Bills, and Matt Verderame correctly predicted the Seahawks would win as slight underdogs against the Jaguars.
We move on to Week 7, looking for another good week of underdog games. The SI team has its picks locked in, so let’s dive in.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
The 5-1 Colts travel to Los Angeles for a major AFC showdown against the 4-2 Chargers on Sunday. Their last business trip to California ended in a loss to the Rams, but the Colts are hoping for a different outcome this time in Los Angeles.
With the Chargers allowing an average of 124.2 rushing yards per game, Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor will have room to operate. Taylor ran for 123 yards and a touchdown last week against the Cardinals and hopes to continue that momentum against a lacking Chargers defense. If Jones and Taylor continue their high-flying action, the Colts might be able to pull off a solid road win in Week 7.
The Dolphins are horrible, but why do the Browns score points against anyone…in any building? While every NFL team has scored at least 20 points in multiple games this year, Cleveland hasn’t done it once. And while Miami is ranked 30th defensively, he faces rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who is making his third career start.
Maybe the Dolphins are so rancid that they go to Cleveland and allow Gabriel to light them up while Tua Tagovailoa is busy wondering how many more wheels he can throw his teammates under in the postgame press conference, but it seems foolhardy to believe the Browns if the other team is capable of scoring.
I’m starting to think the Seahawks aren’t a good home team. Coach Mike Macdonald is 4-8 at home, compared to a very impressive 10-1 on the road. But it’s more about the Texans, who just had a week off. Houston has a dominant defense, and CJ Stroud and his offense have played better in recent weeks. I can see this one becoming one of the best games of Week 7.
The Saints may only have one win this season, but I firmly believe we’ve seen enough to know they’re not as bad as their preseason projections. Spencer Rattler has shown flashes of skill at quarterback, and their defense ranks in the top half of the NFL in stopping the run, notably allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.
Chicago is 30th in net yards per play (-1), 21st in DVOA, 23rd in offensive success rate and 28th in opponent success rate. I don’t root for the Bears like everyone else does. I think they lose this week.
This NFC East game has the potential to be a true shootout, as Dallas ranks 31st in the NFL in EPA/Play on defense while the Commanders rank 22nd in EPA/Play.
The Cowboys are home dogs after losing to Carolina in Week 6, but they rank second in the NFL in EPA/Play on offense.
I’m not sold on Washington on the road in this one, especially since Dak Prescott is an impressive 44-18-1 at home during his NFL career. Dallas is worth watching in this divisional matchup.
Ratings are updated periodically and are subject to change.
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