NFL Playoff Overreactions: Lions Super Bowl Window Closed? Leaders aided by civil servants?

The first day of the divisional round of the playoffs was an NFL thriller. The Washington Commanders picked up a massive win over the Detroit Lions and advanced to the conference championship game for the first time since 1991, all behind rookie sensation Jayden Daniels. Washington will face the winner of the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game next week.

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Houston Texans early to advance to their seventh straight conference championship game – or every season Patrick Mahomes has started. The Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills or Baltimore Ravens next week.

With the exciting divisional round clashes wrapping up on Saturday, there are plenty of overreactions to be had. Which are overreactions and which are reality?

Jayden Daniels is having the best playoff run ever for a rookie QB

Overreaction or reality: Reality

What Daniels did in two playoff games is what legends are made of. The No. 6-seeded Commanders beat the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay, then beat the No. 1-seeded Lions in Detroit, making Daniels the third rookie quarterback to appear in the championship game of conference.

Daniels also failed to manage his game there. Daniels is the first player since the 1970 merger with 250+ passing yards, 2+ passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in each of his first two playoff games. He is the third player with 500+ passing yards, 75+ rushing yards, 4+ passing touchdowns and no interceptions through the first two games of the playoffs – joining Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

The Commanders are in the conference championship game for the first time in 33 years thanks to Daniels playing as a top-five quarterback in year one. Daniels and the Commanders have a bright future.

Lions’ Super Bowl window is closed

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Lions were the team to beat in the NFC with the No. 1 seed and a 15-2 record. This was their best chance to win a Super Bowl, and they were in position to win one with the playoffs coming to Detroit. With this divisional playoff loss to the Commanders, is the Super Bowl window closed?

The core of this team with Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs and Penei Sewell is back. Aidan Hutchinson and many other key defensive starters will also be healthy (the Lions had six defensive starters on injured reserve and 16 players overall). Detroit still has one of the three best offensive lines in football and one of the most explosive offenses, whether or not Ben Johnson returns as offensive coordinator.

The Lions will lose some key coaches (Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn most likely), so they will take a hit. There are questions about whether Goff is good enough to win this team a Super Bowl, but this team will be in the mix to compete for a Super Bowl in 2025. The window isn’t closed yet.

Jared Goff isn’t good enough to win the Lions a Super Bowl

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Goff is a good enough quarterback to win Detroit a Super Bowl championship, but turnovers and poor play in big games have been his downfall. Goff threw three interceptions – one returned for a touchdown – and lost a fumble in Saturday’s loss to the Commanders.

The Lions may need to protect Goff from himself in the future, making him a game manager in big games instead of a weapon thrower. Goff has appeared in one Super Bowl and two conference championship games during his career, but has a 4-5 record in the postseason. Heading into Saturday, Goff’s 0.6 interception rate was the lowest in NFL playoff history – which evaporated due to his poor performance.

Detroit committed to Goff and gave him $53 million per year for the next four years. They will roll with Goff going forward and Goff will have multiple opportunities to avenge this playoff loss. Moving forward, Detroit probably shouldn’t count on him to throw 40+ times in a playoff game.

Travis Kelce is the best receiver to ever play in the playoffs

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Kelce added to his playoff legend in Saturday’s victory, catching seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown in the victory. Kelce passed Jerry Rice for the most 100-yard games by any player in the postseason (nine) and has 14 consecutive postseason games with more than 70 receiving yards, double the player’s amount next (Antonio Brown has seven).

Kelce has 2,020 receiving yards and 20 receiving touchdowns in his postseason career – only Rice has more with 2,245 and 22 touchdowns. At 35, Kelce could overtake Rice as early as this season – and he’s already within striking distance of Rice.

Kelce and Rice have both won three Super Bowl titles and are the No. 1 options for each of their Super Bowl championship teams. Kelce also has the most receptions by any player in playoff history (172) – and has those numbers in six fewer playoff games than Rice.

When it comes to the playoffs, no one is a better pass catcher than Kelce.

Andy Reid to set all-time NFL winning record for coaches

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Reid notched his 300th career victory (regular and postseason) as the Chiefs beat the Texans on Saturday, becoming the fourth head coach in NFL history to achieve 300 career victories. Only three head coaches have more career wins than Reid: Don Shula (347), Bill Belichick (333) and George Halas (324). The all-time winning record is within reach.

Reid only needs 48 wins to pass Shula and is only 66 years old. The Chiefs are winning an average of 13 regular season games per season since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback — and that doesn’t include the 16 playoff victories. Including the playoffs, the Chiefs win an average of 15 games per year.

Reid only needs three more seasons at this pace to get within five wins of the all-time record, a number he can surpass by the 2028 season (he would be 70). Assuming Reid doesn’t retire before then, he’ll pass Shula for the most wins by a head coach — and could have a few more championships between now and then.

The officials are the reason the Chiefs won

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Social media was abuzz with how the officiating crew was rooting for the Chiefs in Saturday’s win, especially Patrick Mahomes. Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans added fuel to the fire by saying in his postgame press conference: “It was us against everyone. When I say everyone , I mean everyone.” – suggesting that officials had appeals in favor of the chiefs.

That’s not how the Chiefs won the game. The Texans allowed eight sacks in the divisional round loss, allowed a 63-yard kickoff return on the game’s opening play that led to a three-pointer, blocked a 35-yard field goal and missed a 55-yard field goal in the 23-14 loss (nine points given up from the spot). Houston was also 1 of 3 in the red zone, not having a single field goal to play.

Houston made enough mistakes Saturday to fail to advance to the conference championship game. Losses should not necessarily be blamed on those responsible, especially if Ryans implied that was the case.