Bills QB Josh AllenKathryn Riley/Getty Images
Even though the Buffalo Bills have a better record than the Baltimore Ravens, they are the underdogs in this game. The Bills are home underdogs for the first time in a long time, meaning they could head into this game with a chip on their shoulder.
Excluding a loss in Week 18 with backups for most of the contest, the Bills have lost just one game since Week 6, a road matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.
Still, bettors undoubtedly factored in the Bills’ 35-10 road loss to the Ravens in Week 4.
With some additions and returning players for the Bills, Hanford and O’Donnell like Buffalo to avenge its regular season loss to Baltimore.
Wesley: Let’s start with what we’ve seen this year: The Ravens beat the Bills in Baltimore 35-10 in Week 4. Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards in this game. The Ravens called on Henry for games like that and, more importantly, for this playoff game. Is that enough to justify 1.5 points on the road against a Bills team that has only lost one meaningful game in its last 12 games?
Ian: While I understand that, I’m still shocked to see Buffalo as an underdog in a home playoff game. This hasn’t happened to the Bills since 1967. The Bills certainly left a lot to be desired in the Week 4 blowout, and this is a Ravens team that has won five straight games by at least 14 points, but I have a hard time thinking Josh Allen won’t use this lopsided loss as extra motivation this time around. However, they will have to make some adjustments, especially against Derrick Henry. How do you see them doing this?
Wesley: Keep him off the field. Keep Lamar off the field. The Bills were second this season in conversion rate. Be aggressive in the right places. Don’t settle for field position or three-pointers when you have momentum on your side against a Ravens offense that has produced the most passes of 40-plus yards this season. Lamar’s 8.8 yards per attempt was the highest in the league for starting QBs. Keep them off the field as much as possible. Wait, why are we both on the bills if we know all this?
Ian: Keeping them off the field is really the only guaranteed antidote against a dynamic duo like these two. But I will note that Buffalo is in a better position this time with Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano in the fold. Neither played in the previous game and both should go a long way in their attempts to slow down the Ravens running game. Milan should also factor in Lamar’s release from the pocket. I hear you on the logic favoring the Ravens, but for me, instinct is simply stronger here. I can’t believe a player as good as Josh Allen is going to hit again, but he’s going to need help. We saw Ty Johnson emerge last week against Denver. Who makes a big play besides Allen to push them over the top this week?
Wesley: You know my answer here. Amari Cooper. The guy has too much talent to ignore on the field. He still sees the same percentage of snaps despite lower targets. In a game where one broken play can make the difference, I’m rooting for the guy they traded a third-round pick for just a few months ago (and his +450 Anytime TD number). And you?
Ian: Cooper is a good choice, and I guess the Ravens expect him to put more emphasis, so I’ll go with Khalil Shakir. Shakir caught six passes against Denver, 76 passes in the regular season and still looks open. Nothing about his game is flashy, but his ability to run after the catch can serve as an extension of the running game in a sense when Buffalo isn’t likely to advance James Cook in a way important against a tough Ravens D race.
Wesley: Yes, it’s more about the Bills righting the wrongs done in their first meeting with Baltimore than anything the Ravens can do. And hey, worst case scenario, we get points. You already noted the playoff number, and the Bills haven’t been the home dogs in any game since the 2020 season, so we accomplished that for us, which is good.
Ian: Righting the wrongs and the fact that it’s now or never in Buffalo with missed opportunities in the past and Allen playing the best ball of his career. This has all the makings of a classic, but it’s impossible for me to let the points slide.
ATS consensus: Invoices +1.5
Score prediction: Bills 31, Crows 28
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