Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer looks at this week’s matchups in the divisional round of the playoffs. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = plus/minus). Farmer had a regular season winning percentage of .695 and .533 against the spread. The record for the wild-card round of the playoffs was 4-2 (.667) and, using point spreads with Farmer’s predicted scores, 3-3 (.500) against the spread. Times Pacific. The TV channels are local to Los Angeles.
Saturday, 1:30 p.m. TV: Canal 7 (ABC), ESPN, ESPN+, ESPN deporte
Double: Leaders by 8½. More/Less: 41½.
How the Texans can win: Like the Rams, they’re an indoor team playing in the cold and with house money, so they can take some risks. The Chiefs have had to reshuffle their offensive line, including at left tackle, which could be a vulnerability. This took away the running game and forced Patrick Mahomes to lean more toward a nickel and dime approach. Typically, Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses don’t give up big plays, but the Chiefs haven’t been great at that this season.
How the Chiefs can win: Give Andy Reid more time to strategize, and his teams are scary. The Chiefs know exactly what to do in January games: check their trophy case. Defensively, they need to clamp down on receiver Nico Collins, more of a threat now that the Texans lost Tank Dell (injured in the Week 16 game against Kansas City). Mahomes is the key, of course, and there’s no one better when it comes to getting out of the pocket and creating big plays with his arms and legs.
Take: The Chiefs haven’t been an offensive powerhouse this season, but they’re great at doing what they need to at the right time. It’s going to be cold. It’s going to be noisy. Reid is going to prepare his team and Mahomes is going to do what he needs to do to win. Chiefs 27, Texans 20
Saturday, 5 p.m. TV: Channel 11 (Fox), Fox Deports
Double: Lions at 9½. More/Less: 55½.
How Commanders Can Win: It’s all about rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, and the key will be getting star receiver Terry McLaurin involved. This is McLaurin’s 10th starting quarterback since joining the league in 2019, and the cool-headed Daniels is a gem. The Commanders have won their last five games on the final play from scrimmage. Daniels feels no pressure; he laughs in the group in do-or-die moments. The big challenge will be keeping pace with a Detroit offense that can score in multiple ways. The Lions had to tinker on defense and they are missing five starters (from the first game) on this side of the ball.
How the Lions can win: Do what they do. They bring back David Montgomery to mix with phenomenal guard Jahmyr Gibbs. Jared Goff is super accurate and has low blood pressure composure, and he knows exactly when to get the ball to Amon-Ra St. Brown, tight end Sam LaPorta and others. The Lions feel like a team of destiny and they act accordingly. There’s no place more electric in the postseason than Ford Field. They’re not going to let the moment get too big for them.
Take: The Lions have improved so far and they are ready to make a serious run at the Lombardi Trophy. There is so much on the shoulders of a rookie quarterback for the Commanders. It would be a major surprise for Washington to come away with a victory. Lions 35, Commanders 24
Sunday, noon. TV: Channel 4 (NBC), Peacock
Double: Eagles by 6½. More/Less: 44½.
How the Rams can win: They’re coming off an incredibly emotional victory and now have to travel across the country for a short week to face a rock-solid team in the cold. A result that shocks the world isn’t out of the question, but watch for Sean McVay to go all out with trick plays, and maybe some different, riskier stuff on fourth down and even on special teams. If there was ever a time to roll the dice, it’s now.
How the Eagles can win: Their offensive and defensive lines are much better than Minnesota’s, so don’t expect the Rams to harass Jalen Hurts like they did Sam Darnold, and the pressure will be mounted on Matthew Stafford. A reminder of Saquon Barkley? The Rams probably aren’t going to get burned 302 yards from him again, but it’s a nightmare.
Take: With teams riding a huge wave of emotion, anything can happen. So, not counting the Rams, but Philadelphia has so many ways to beat you, and the Eagles defense is stifling. McVay’s spotlight is on, so this could be a big Cooper Kupp game. Eagles 28, Rams 23
Sunday, 3:30 p.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS), Paramount+
Double: Ravens by 1½. More/Less: 51½.
How the Ravens can win: Baltimore has embraced being a run-heavy team rather than worrying about running Derrick Henry too much and being balanced on offense, proving that Lamar Jackson can win it all with his arm. The Ravens aren’t one-dimensional, but they know who they are and they need to continue to think about the run first. Defensively, they have gotten a little better at limiting explosive plays, but this problem still crops up from time to time. Teams throw corner Brandon Stephens a lot, so be very aware of that.
How the Bills can win: The Bills were blown out by Baltimore earlier this season, and Buffalo was missing three key defenders, so this game is unlikely to be a reminder of that. The bills are super balanced. Josh Allen gets them going, sure, but running back James Cook has been great. They are able to establish the run, and when defenses sell out to stop that, Allen spreads the ball around so effectively. Eight players had receptions last week. They don’t have a No. 1 receiver, but he’s a strength. They can go anywhere with the ball at any time.
Take: This one could go either way. Both teams are loaded with players with tons of playoff experience. Both can handle the cold. It feels like Baltimore’s running game will dictate the pace, and the defense will do enough to keep Allen at bay. It came down to a last-second basket. Ravens 30, Bills 28
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This story was originally published in the Los Angeles Times.
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