Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer looks at this week’s matchups in the NFC and AFC championship games. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = plus/minus). Farmer had a regular season winning percentage of .695 and, using point spreads to Farmer’s predicted scores, .533 from the spread. The divisional round record of the playoffs was 2–2 (.500); playoffs overall 6-4 (.600). Using point spreads with Farmer’s predicted scores, the record vs. spread would have been 1-3 (0.250); playoffs overall 4-6 (.400). Times Pacific. The TV channels are local to Los Angeles.
NFC: No. 6 Washington at No. 2 Philadelphia
Sunday, noon. TV: Channel 11 (Fox), Fox Deports
Double: Eagles by 6½. More/Less: 47½.
How Commanders Can Win: Let rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels do his thing. He is not shaken by big moments. Defensively, this is a game of choice for Washington. Commanders need to find a way to slow down running back Saquon Barkley or wide receiver AJ Brown. After Barkley ran for over 100 yards against them in the first quarter of Week 16, the Commanders clamped down on him until the end. Brown has always been a problem for them. Washington doesn’t have a great run defense, as Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs demonstrated in the divisional round. The Commanders tend to get in their own way with penalties and turnovers, so if they can limit them… A key player to watch on defense is corner Marshon Lattimore, flagged twice for pass interference so that he was covering Brown last month.
How the Eagles can win: They have to run the ball. That’s their formula. Barkley tends to hammer a defense early and usually breaks through at some point. Defensively, the Eagles have limited explosive plays, have done enough to stop the run and tend to force turnovers, something they haven’t done as well earlier in the season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts can’t turn the ball over, and he’s been pretty good at that and has been careful to avoid risky throws. His left leg hurts – how much, we don’t know yet – and that could be a problem if it makes him less mobile. But it’s tough. On defense, tackle Jalen Carter is a wrecking ball. He draws so many double teams that it frees up his dueling teammates. Still, the key is defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. He made everyone better.
Prediction: The Eagles likely would have swept both games against the Commanders if not for Hurts’ concussion in their last meeting. Daniels is so calm and sexy that he’s going to cause big problems. These division opponents know each other well and Hurts’ injury could end up making the Eagles slightly more one-dimensional. A shake-up could be in the works. Commanders 30, Eagles 28
AFC: Buffalo No. 2 against Kansas City (No. 1)
Sunday, 3:30 p.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS), Paramount+
Double: Leaders by 1½. More/Less: 47½.
How the Bills can win: Buffalo beat Kansas City consistently in the regular season, but that didn’t carry over into the playoffs. Still, these bills are looser than in years past, perhaps because relatively few people expected them to get this far. They are a powerful team and have continued to prove it during these playoffs, establishing a strong ground game against the top two run defenses. Quarterback Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level and while he doesn’t have a clear No. 1 receiver, he’s actually a strength. As the Bills like to say, “Everybody eats.” They don’t turn the ball over. Defensively, they need to put Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the field. He has hurt Buffalo in the past with off-schedule plays, keeping plays alive with his legs. The Bills need to make tackles.
How the Chiefs can win: The Chiefs are still looking for a way to limit Allen. In the games where they beat him, they practically outplayed him. Kansas City’s defense struggled to stop quarterback runs. Limiting possessions is key. When these teams met in the playoffs last season, Buffalo had just eight possessions and of the first five, four went for 70 yards or more. The Bills have some vulnerabilities with their secondary, but the Chiefs need to get their receiving game going. Xavier Worthy was the only Chiefs receiver to catch a pass last week. We could see another game in which tight ends are targeted the most. So get ready, Travis Kelce.
Prediction: This looks like a breakthrough year for Buffalo, especially considering how calm and confident this team is. It’s always risky to bet against Mahomes, especially with so much on the line, but Buffalo can control the tempo with an extremely balanced offense and keep him on the sideline. Bills 27, counts 24
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This story was originally published in the Los Angeles Times.
