Story of the season: Jayden Daniels is one match away from extraordinary. A stunning seven-win stretch over the winter leaves Washington with only Philadelphia to beat for the NFC championship and Daniels to become the first rookie quarterback to lead his team to a Super Bowl. They need a second win in six weeks against an Eagles team with the strongest roster in the NFL. But Philly’s lineup, with Saquon Barkley at its core, rang around the Commanders for an easy victory in the teams’ other regular-season meeting in November. The Eagles will desperately try to spoil the rookie party while winning this improbable season-defining series.
What Washington must do to win: The Commanders must maintain the improved level of defense they’ve achieved in these playoffs, while trying to keep the ball out of Barkley’s hands as much as possible through a methodical, time-consuming running game. Washington only forced 17 turnovers in the regular season, but they generated five against the Lions last week and another against the Bucs in the wild-card round. Those turnovers led to three touchdowns.
Much like the defense, if Washington can muster the same production from running backs Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler as they did against Detroit, they will be difficult to stop. The pair combined for 128 rushing yards – just 17 fewer than their total from the previous three games. Avoiding the scenario’s need for explosive passing plays against the elite coverage of Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay is key.
What Philadelphia must do to win: Mea culpa. The Eagles don’t need to pass the ball. In the wildcard round, Jalen Hurts offered the lowest pass attempt chance, providing a positive outcome for any winning playoff team in the last 10 seasons. Last week, Hurts totaled 65 net passing yards, the fewest of any team in a playoff game in the last decade, win or loss. Unfortunately for Washington, with Barkley running the Eagles offense, the numbers don’t matter. When every ball touched by the running back has the potential to travel the length of the field, as long as Hurts doesn’t turn it over between handoffs, Philadelphia has a powerful advantage.
Snow and ice played a role in the lack of aerial work last week. It will be the weakness of Washington’s run defense that could leave them stagnant on Sunday. Detroit rushers racked up 201 yards and three touchdowns against the Commanders last week, so the Eagles will expect Barkley to do something similar this weekend.
Key player for Commanders: Jayden Daniels, quarterback. The rookie is the reason Washington went from last place in the NFC East in 2023 to the cusp of the Super Bowl. He showed his ability to raise the level of his teammates when it really counts. Take Dyami Brown, the least spotted. The receiver averaged 19 yards per game in the regular season; in the two playoff victories since, he has totaled 187 yards while receiving more targets and outplaying Terry McLaurin. The Eagles will be nervous about paying too much attention to McLaurin now that Daniels has realized Brown’s potential.
Key Eagles player: Jalen Carter, defensive tackle. After leading a brutal attack on Matthew Stafford against the Rams last week, the passer will be keen to show that Daniels is not as immune to pressure as he seems. What could tip the scales is the injury to Washington right back Sam Cosmi. Backup offensive tackle Trent Scott will need help stopping the disruptive Carter.
Prediction: Eagles over commanders. Daniels is sure to make the Eagles work, but with Barkley in the lineup, Philadelphia will defeat Washington. Sometimes it feels like it’s not a question of if he’ll stop for a 60-yard touchdown, but when. Commanders head coach Dan Quinn will curse the New York Giants for letting Barkley join their rivals.
Story of the season: Just like in 2023, the Chiefs were mediocre for much of last year, cruising in low gear, ready to strike in the playoffs. They remain the best-coached and best-prepared team in the NFL. Their only stumbling block: the Bills. Josh Allen’s game-clinching touchdown run on fourth-and-2 when the teams met in the regular season was just a blemish on an otherwise spotless notebook. So can Buffalo do it again? Can Allen finally leave a definitive mark after losing to Mahomes three times in the playoffs? The pressure is on in what is sure to be another instant classic.
What Buffalo must do to win: Run the ball. Kansas City’s defense has a weak spot that can be exploited by James Cook and Allen. The Chiefs have mellowed somewhat since holding the Bills to a respectable 104 rushing yards when they met in Week 11. Over their last five games, Kansas City has allowed an average of 150 yards rushing. ground, while the Bills have consistently dominated on the ground, averaging 170 yards in the eight games since beating the Chiefs. Importantly, in the playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos – the NFL’s top and third-leading rushers in total yards allowed in 2024 – each gave up a season-high total against Buffalo. If this is the damage Cook and Allen can do to opponents who specialize in stopping runners, then the duo will most likely cause serious problems for Kansas City.
What Kansas City must do to win: Put the ball in the hands of Xavier Worthy. In head coach Andy Reid’s plan, the speedy receiver can stretch Buffalo deep down the field. That should give Mahomes an explosive target to unlock a potentially missing Bills secondary star cornerback, Christian Benford, who is in concussion protocol. Reid should also work on creative touches for Worthy when the Chiefs have the ball in the red zone. He brings a crucial playmaking threat to support Travis Kelce’s more routine and efficient production. The Bills struggled in close playoff games last season, and the nerves were still evident last week as Lamar Jackson went on a rampage in the second half. Reid can count on Worthy to be an X-factor, just like Tyreek Hill was in the Chiefs’ epic divisional round win over Buffalo in 2022.
Key Bills player: Spencer Brown, right tackle. Brown had a fantastic season protecting his quarterback and blocking runs. Allen has only been sacked 17 times in his 19 games this season, while Brown and his offensive line have helped Buffalo score more than 30 points 13 times. Most exciting for the Bills is that the 6-foot-8, 310-pound bruiser was absent from their regular season win over the Chiefs. When they need to score, they can count on Brown to do the dirty work that makes Allen shine.
Chiefs key player: Jaylen Watson, cornerback. The difference for Kansas City could be Watson’s return to the secondary. The defensive back, who missed the regular season loss to the Bills, enjoyed a timely warmup against Houston. The Chiefs coverage is outstanding with Trent McDuffie alongside him. They should allow Steve Spagnuolo to focus his defense on more important matters: stopping the run.
Prediction: Leaders vs. Bills. This seems as close as a coin toss. Which style will have the greatest influence on the result? The brute force of the Bills or the calm and madness of the Chiefs? The 3-0 record against Allen in the playoffs gives Kansas City the confidence to defeat the powerful Bills. Mahomes, as always, finds a way.
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