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New York, Colorado and Utah primaries 2024: live results and analysis

Amid the many primaries taking place tonight, voters in Colorado’s 4th District are also choosing their next member of Congress. Buck, frustrated with his own party, resigned from the House early, triggering a special election to finish his term.

Although Boebert is running for a full term in this district, she is not running in the special. Instead, Republicans nominated Greg Lopez, former mayor of Parker, Colorado, and candidate for governor in 2022. Lopez faces Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a speechwriter, in what is expected to be a noncompetitive special election this evening.

But there is at least an outside possibility that the race will surprise us. Democrats recently outperformed in another special election for the House of Representatives, in Ohio’s 6th District, which was considered a failure for the Republican Party. This seat, vacated by Republican Bill Johnson, voted for Trump by 29 percentage points in 2020, but the GOP candidate won by 9 points, an overperformance of 20 percent. Colorado’s 4th District voted for Trump by 19 points in 2020, so a similar overperformance would make for a very close race.

However, there are many reasons why this might not be the case. Unlike Ohio, where the special election was the only race to take place in the state and turnout was at an all-time low, Colorado’s special election coincides with a statewide primary race. State that will increase participation. And in the 4th District in particular, a contentious primary featuring Boebert and a group of other candidates will likely specifically increase Republican turnout.

But it wouldn’t take a Calvarese victory to be good news for Democrats. Historically, special election results have some predictive power, and Democrats have established a healthy record thus far heading into the 2024 elections. Since the start of 2023, Democrats have outperformed partisanship in House special elections by 7 points, according to an analysis of 538, and in the special elections overall, by a similar margin.

At a time when national polls look mediocre at best for Democrats, stronger-than-expected results tonight could provide some much-needed comfort.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

ABC News

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