The risks of tropical cyclone development are increasing in the Atlantic basin
The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring two areas of weather disturbance in the Atlantic Basin for development over the next week. None pose an immediate threat to the United States
A new tropical disturbance is currently being monitored for development in the eastern Atlantic Ocean immediately following Invest 95L, which is on track to become a tropical depression or tropical storm Beryl.
The new disturbance is located a few hundred kilometers south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and is currently producing only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, slow development of this system is possible early next week as it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at a speed of 15 to 20 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It currently has a 20% chance of developing over the next week.
But it is the sister storm just to the west that is currently attracting most attention in the tropics.
Computer forecast models show tropical development is likely as this disturbance, dubbed Invest 95L by the NHC, approaches the Caribbean islands Sunday evening or Monday. An invest is a naming convention used by the NHC to identify areas it is investigating for possible tropical development over the next week.
However, the FOX Forecast Center said there is considerable uncertainty about the direction the system will take after this period and its strength.
The NHC now believes that the chances of development of Invest 95L are high. These chances are linked to the development of at least one tropical depression.
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“(On Wednesday), a number of computer simulations showed the system strengthening into a hurricane next week,” said Bryan Norcross, FOX’s hurricane weather specialist. “(On Thursday), the various computer models mostly show a weaker system moving west. If the storm ends up in the Caribbean, which is the consensus, it would be pretty unusual for the system to strengthen, even if it did.”
For now, there’s nothing to do but stay informed, especially in the Caribbean islands, Norcross added.
BRYAN NORCROSS: UNUSUAL DEVELOPMENT IN JUNE IN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEEMS MORE LIKELY
Before 2021, it was rare for a tropical storm to develop in June in the Atlantic east of the Caribbean. In the last three years, however, this has happened three times, and Bonnie tried hard in 2022, but failed to get going until she reached the western Caribbean.
Invest 94L
Another disturbance dubbed Invest 94L is moving across the Caribbean toward Central America and southern Mexico, bringing the possibility of heavy and dangerous rain.
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The NHC believes that this system is unlikely to develop. If so, it will likely be in the far western Caribbean or the far southern Gulf of Mexico, if the system survives its journey across land, Norcross said.
“According to the current timeline, the disturbance will affect Central America and move into the southern Gulf over the weekend,” he said. “High pressure in the southern United States is expected to keep the system well south.”
News Source : www.foxweather.com
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