Supporters listen to President Biden speak during a Black Voters for Biden campaign event at Girard College, Wednesday, May 29, in Philadelphia. Biden won black voters under 45 by about 80% in 2020. In a recent University of Chicago poll, that support is more of a 2024 question.
Evan Vucci/AP/AP
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Evan Vucci/AP/AP
Five months before the presidential election, the state of the youth vote remains, in some respects, a question mark.
It’s a topic regularly discussed as President Biden continues to receive poor marks from Gen Z and millennial voters, even though the same age group decidedly voted for him four years ago years.
But among young Black, Latino and Asian American voters, who overwhelmingly sided with Biden in 2020, and in higher proportions than young white voters, support has weakened significantly, according to the latest GenForward survey from the University of Chicago.
The survey, obtained exclusively by NPR and conducted May 10-22, queried the political attitudes of 2,089 Americans under the age of 40, with largely equal samples of white, black, Latino and Asian American and North Islander individuals. Pacific (AAPI).
It found that only a third of all young Americans said they would support Biden if the election were held at the time the survey was conducted. The poll also reflects a virtual tie in the race. Biden leads former President Donald Trump by just two points, and 34% of respondents currently support a third-party candidate or said they would support “someone else.”
Additionally, despite speculation about how U.S. support for Israel could negatively affect Biden’s youth coalition, the poll finds that the war in Gaza is not the top voting issue for most young Americans. Instead, economic concerns, particularly those related to inflation, remain at the forefront.
That said, the economy is one of several policy areas, along with immigration and the war in Gaza, in which respondents were less likely to choose Biden as the best candidate to handle the issue, illustrating a potentially more profound for his campaign among young Americans.
Biden’s 2020 coalition disappears in 2024
Broken down by race and ethnicity, Biden particularly lost ground among young black and Latino people.
In 2020, 89% of Black voters aged 18 to 29 voted for Biden, as did 78% of those aged 30 to 44. In the latest GenForward survey, only 33% said they would support him if the election were held today and 23% chose Trump.
Trump beats Biden among young Latino voters by a four-point margin. This is a significant drop in support for Biden compared to four years ago, when he won 69% of Latino voters under 30 and 62% of 30-44 year olds.
Looking at a sample of only registered voters, the numbers improve for Biden and push him ahead of Trump with Latinos, but the margins remain slim. Biden’s support among black voters increases only two points, to 35%.
“Young people are saying to Joe Biden, ‘win me, win my vote,’” said Cathy Cohen, a University of Chicago professor who founded and directs the GenForward poll. “Don’t assume I’m going to vote for you now. »
This statement is especially true for those who are still looking for another candidate, even though the presidential primary season is all but over. Among Black and Latino Americans, about a quarter said they would vote for someone else.
There are several paths for the “someone else” voter and Cohen argued that opinions could likely change as the election gets closer.
“This is how young people are presenting themselves right now, as we start to move into summer,” she added. “Next November, when there’s something at stake…those numbers might be a little different.”
But in GenForward’s June survey four years ago — which did not include third-party candidates — Biden had much greater support. He received support from a majority of black, Latino and Asian Americans, and only 15% on average said they would vote for someone else.
The latest poll’s inclusion of third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West could also indicate how adding names to the ballot could split the youth vote in the fall. A similar result was reflected in the latest Harvard Youth Poll: Biden beats Trump in a head-to-head match, but when third-party candidates are included, the margin shrinks.
It’s economic issues that motivate voters, not the war between Israel and Hamas
Inflation came in first in all groups when asked what the most important issue is in this fall’s vote. Concerns about economic growth came in second for Black, Latino, and AAPI youth, while “threats to American democracy” came in second for whites.
For Cohen, much of Biden’s problems revolve around the current state of the economy, and while inflation is slowing, she says those changes haven’t fully resonated.
“These young people are facing increasing rents, increasing food prices, increasing gasoline prices, and their incomes are less flexible, I would say, than those of older people,” he said. she explained.
Generation Z and millennials aren’t the only ones who prioritize economic issues. It consistently ranks number one across generations and racial groups. In this latest poll, issues often linked to young voters, such as the right to abortion, the fight against gun violence, the fight against climate change and ending the war in Gaza, appear at the bottom of the list of important questions.
When asked to choose which presidential candidate would do best on issues related to immigration and inflation, Trump gets the most support overall. But, in the question, which gave respondents the options Trump, Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and “none of them,” Trump is followed closely by “none of them.”
One of Biden’s areas of relative strength, abortion access, has been a cornerstone of his campaign. Biden leads by just three points, followed by the “none of them” option.
In the 2022 midterm elections, ensuring access to abortion was the top motivator for voters under 30, and they overwhelmingly came out in favor of Democratic candidates.
This remains an important election issue in the GenForward poll: a third of respondents said they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, and nearly half agreed. that individuals should “always be able to obtain an abortion.” personal choice »
Regarding the war between Israel and Hamas, only 4% of young Americans say this is the most important voting issue for them. There is also a lack of knowledge on the subject. Respondents were more likely to say “don’t know” in response to questions regarding support and sympathy for Israel and the Palestinian people, as well as responsibility for the conflict when given the options of Hamas, the Israeli government and the American government. , the Iranian government and all of the above.
Among AAPI youth, this issue carries more weight, with 10% saying it is the most important issue when voting in elections and six in ten wanting a permanent ceasefire.
And young people are generally in favor of ending the war, with 53% of them in favor of a permanent ceasefire.
That said, Biden has a low approval rating for his handling of the conflict, with just 12% supporting, compared to 49% disapproving and 39% choosing neither option.
All of this underscores the complex choice facing many undecided young Americans this fall, Cohen argued, particularly for voters of color, who may generally align with Democratic values.
The likely choice: get back on board with Biden or effectively stay home.
“In a swing state, if the Biden campaign depends on these young people and they don’t vote, in a way, that’s a vote for Trump,” Cohen said.
“I think we don’t take seriously enough,” she continued, “what does it mean if enough young black people or enough young people of color just decide not to vote?”
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