According to experts, the reconstruction of the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore could take between 18 months and several years, while the cost could amount to at least $400 million, or more than double.
It all depends on factors that are still largely unknown. They range from the design of the new bridge to how quickly government officials can navigate the bureaucracy of approving permits and awarding contracts.
In reality, the project could take five to seven years, according to Ben Schafer, an engineering professor at Johns Hopkins University.
“The current lead time for air conditioning equipment for a home renovation is about 16 months, right?,” Schafer said. He continued: “So it’s like you’re telling me they’re going to build an entire bridge in two years? I want that to be true, but I think empirically it doesn’t seem right to me.
Others are more optimistic about the potential timeline: Sameh Badie, an engineering professor at George Washington University, said the project could take between 18 months and two years.
The Key Bridge collapsed Tuesday, killing six members of a crew working on the span, after the cargo ship Dali crashed into one of its supports. Authorities are scrambling to clean up and rebuild after the crash, which closed the city’s busy port and part of the Baltimore Beltway.
The disaster resembles in some ways the fatal collapse of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge in Florida, which was struck by a cargo ship in Tampa Bay in 1980. The new bridge took five years to build, was 19 months behind schedule and exceeded $20 million from the planned budget. it opened in 1987.
But experts say it’s best to look to more recent bridge disasters to get an idea of how quickly rebuilding can happen.
Jim Tymon, executive director of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, cited the case of the Interstate 35W bridge in Minnesota, which collapsed into the Mississippi River in 2007. The new span was built in less than 14 month.
“That’s the best comparison we have for a project like this,” Tymon said. “They did an outstanding job getting the necessary approvals to be able to rebuild this as quickly as possible.”
Tymon expects various government agencies to work together to obtain permits, environmental and otherwise.
“That’s not to say all the right boxes won’t be checked – they will be,” Tymon said. “It will just be done more efficiently because everyone will know it needs to be done as quickly as possible.”
A looming question is the source of funding. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said the federal government will fund the new bridge, but that remains to be seen.
“I hope that Congress will be able to come together to provide these resources as soon as possible so that this doesn’t become a source of delay,” Tymon said.
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar helped quickly secure funding to rebuild the I-35W bridge in her state. But she said replacing the Baltimore span could be more complicated.
She noted that the I-35W bridge, a federal interstate highway, was a much busier road with about 140,000 vehicle crossings per day, compared to about 31,000 for the Maryland bridge.
“But when you want, you can, and you can get the emergency funding,” Klobuchar said. “This has happened all over the country in disasters. And the fact that it’s such an important port also makes it worth making sure that all of that is taken care of.
Badie, of George Washington University, said the cost could be between $500 million and $1 billion, with the main variable being design.
Video shows the moment a large container ship collided with Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge on the night of Tuesday, March 26, 2024. The ship struck the bridge, which carries Interstate 695 across the Patapsco River at Port of Baltimore, at a support dock. There were cars on the bridge at the time of the collision and collapse.
For example, a suspension bridge like San Francisco’s Golden Gate will cost more, while a cable-stayed span, like Florida’s Skyway Sunshine Bridge, which supports the weight using cables and towers, would be less expensive .
Regardless, steel is expensive these days and there is a backlog in making I-beams, Badie said. Additionally, the limited number of construction companies capable of tackling such a project are already busy on other sites.
“A project like this is going to be fast-tracked, so everything is going to cost a lot more,” Badie said.
Hota GangaRao, an engineering professor at West Virginia University, said the project could cost as little as $400 million. But this is only if the foundations of the old bridge piers are used; Designers may want to place the new supports further away from the navigation channels to avoid another collision.
“It will require more steel, more complicated construction and more checks and balances,” GangaRao said. “It all adds up.”
Norma Jean Mattei, professor emerita of engineering at the University of New Orleans, said replacing the Key Bridge would likely take several years. Although a priority, the process of designing the span, obtaining permits and hiring contractors is time-consuming. And then you have to build it.
“Commissioning a bridge like this is quite a process,” she said.
NBC Chicago
