As the meme says: Ah! GOOD. Nevertheless,
The “something” fueling the dreams of Trump’s opponents for the past year or two is that indicting Trump on criminal charges would trigger, if not an exodus, at least some apathy among his supporters. After the indictments arrived – which strengthened Trump in the Republican primaries – the focus instead turned to sentencing. It is certain that if the former president were convicted of criminal charges, his support would erode. RIGHT?
Take part in CNN’s new poll, conducted by SSRS.
Respondents were asked whether they preferred Trump or President Biden in last November’s election and, if they supported Trump, whether they would release him on bail if he was convicted of a crime. A quarter of Trump supporters said yes, or about 12% of all respondents.
So! There is something! you may be thinking, and I appreciate that. But consider how these views differ by age and party. Older Trump supporters and Republicans are less likely to say they would – could! – reconsider supporting him.
In her preview of the poll, CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta notes that “bail” supporters exhibit a number of characteristics that overlap with those of “non-core Trump supporters” anyway. They are more likely to be under 50 (most are, compared with just over a third of those who will remain loyal to Trump regardless). They are less likely to be white. And more of them voted for Joe Biden in 2020!
Few of them have, but they are not die-hard Trump people.
There are a lot of layers of maybes here. Maybe Trump will be convicted. If he does, perhaps as many as a quarter of Trump’s current supporters — many of whom appear to have been alienated from districts that normally vote Democratic — will reconsider their vote for him. But, according to the CNN poll, very few of them would then vote for Biden.
The calculation of victory in elections is not complicated; your candidate needs one more vote than the other candidate. A deeper level, it becomes more interesting. If a voter switches from your opponent to you, that’s a net gain of two votes: you plus one and them minus one. If a voter abandons your opponent and stays home, this represents a net gain of one vote: the vote of one of your voters is not canceled by that voter. Good, but half as good as a flip.
According to a CNN poll, 4 in 5 people likely to free Trump if he is convicted say they would never vote for Biden. So this represents a net gain of one vote for most of these voters, instead of two. About 2% of respondents say they support Trump now, could be released on bail if he is convicted and could then vote for Biden. Perhaps enough to topple a state – if all these “powers” hold.
What Agiesta points out, however, is that many of them were probably only vaguely attached to Trump to begin with. Some may be people who have been loyal to Trump for eight years and have finally reached the point where they can no longer be loyal. Many are obviously not, but are instead Biden skeptics who are helping Trump do better in the polls now than he was at this point in 2020.
Among these loyalists, the old calculus comes into play. In the abstract, they might renounce Trump. (Among those who won’t, perhaps? The fifth of Trump supporters who already think he’s committed a serious crime.) But once he integrates his belief into his narrative about oppression, prejudices, the law, etc. ? Well. Nevertheless.
washingtonpost
