There is truth in that. But that overlooks something important that hasn’t gotten much attention: Polls show that Biden’s ceiling actually appears lower than Trump’s.
While much has been made of “Never Trump” Republicans, “Never Biden” voters appear to be even more numerous – at least for now.
In 2020, it was the opposite. Every time the question was asked, the percentage of people saying they would never vote for Trump exceeded the “Never Biden” contingent by double digits.
Often, at least 50% of voters said not only were they not voting for Trump, but that they had no chance of doing so. At most, only 4 in 10 people said the same thing about Biden.
The most recent poll to demonstrate this is Monday’s New York Times and Siena College survey of six key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In those states, 46% of registered voters said they had no chance of voting for Trump, while 52% said the same of Biden.
That’s the widest gap yet, based on a previous Times poll and a CNN poll last month. But even with smaller gaps, all polls in recent months have shown more “Never Biden” voters than “Never Trump.”
And in 3 out of 4 polls since November, a majority of voters say they will never vote for Biden – just as was the case for Trump in 2020.
Part of the reason for this is voters’ enthusiasm for reinstating Trump as president.
As has been noted, retrospective analyzes of Trump’s presidency have been better than they were at virtually any time when he was actually in office – what his critics have called “amnesia of Trump.” The CNN poll mentioned above is a good example. While 55% of respondents called Trump’s presidency a “failure” in its final days, 55% now call it a “success.”
So it’s no surprise that the share of the “Never Trump” electorate has fallen from over 50% in the mid-40s.
But it’s also true that Biden just doesn’t seem like a viable option for many voters right now — as much for the majority, and certainly far more so than in 2020. That same CNN poll showed that 61%. considered his presidency as a viable option until now. a “failure”, for example.
Biden’s high “no chance” numbers undermine another common trend in perhaps overly optimistic Democratic thinking: that the president stands to gain if and when third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fade away over time ( as they often do).
While recent data suggests that the Kennedy factor pulls more heavily on Trump than Biden, some on the left have argued that third-party candidates like him are bad for Biden, period. The reason? They lower the threshold for victory for Trump, a candidate who (again) has not proven he can get even 47 percent.
But Trump’s ceiling doesn’t seem that low at the moment; he is 49 percent against Biden in the six states surveyed by the Times.
Biden’s ceiling, on the other hand, seems so low. And that suggests he has more work to do than just rallying the troops against a common enemy.
washingtonpost
