Netflix is ​​online. The networks should be afraid.

After Netflix nabbed the rights to NFL Christmas games, it’s clear the streamer is quickly moving into the live-streaming business — a historic shift for a company that has never integrated “appointment viewing.” you” to its business model.

• By
  
  AA Dowd
  

• on May 20, 2024 9:05 a.m.

Netflix just beeped. On Wednesday, rumors of a new playbook for the streaming giant came to fruition: live football is coming to the platform this Christmas. Netflix will exclusively host a doubleheader of NFL Christmas games this season and will stream at least one holiday game in 2025 and 2026. If you’re a traditional cable customer hoping to spend this Christmas watching the Chiefs take on the Steelers or The Texans face the Ravens, we will have to reach a subscriber base now around 270 million.

This newly signed deal comes on the heels of this month’s Netflix Is a Joke, a comedy festival in Los Angeles featuring several high-profile live events available to subscribers. These included a new stand-up special from Katt Williams, a star-studded roast from Tom Brady and six nights of John Mulaney’s all-new talk show experience, Everybody’s in Los Angeles Judging by the large number of words written on each of them, this week of live comedy was a success, regardless of how many users watched it in real time.

All of this speaks to a reality that should make major TV networks pretty nervous: Netflix is ​​quickly moving into the live-streaming business — a historic shift for a company that has never integrated “appointment viewing.” » in its economic model. Traditionally, Netflix seemed content to serve as a platform alternative to the live television model. This is the company that, after all, popularized binge-watching, catering to an audience that would rather binge through a new show over a long weekend than follow it from week to week. Netflix’s bread and butter has always been its library of licensed reruns, the antithesis of the one-offs offered by traditional networks.

Netflix has already flirted with the live TV space. Last year, the streamer launched its first live broadcast, a stand-up special from Chris Rock. The company also announced plans to livestream the cast reunion of its reality TV sensation. Love is blind— a blatant bid for audiences who religiously tune in to Bravo’s similar slate of season-closing panel discussions. But a technical glitch put an end to that plan: after a bug in the system prevented viewers, the special ended up being dropped, rather disappointingly, as a normal recorded episode on the platform the next morning . With this month’s comedy lineup, Netflix appears to have solved the live-streaming woes; one wonders if his strong performance helped advance goal-line negotiations with the NFL.

Above all, this agreement marks a sudden change of direction. As recently as last summer, Netflix reiterated its reluctance to enter the sports bidding war. “Sports Adjacent” was its official approach to sports content, courting sports audiences with a series of splashy docuseries rather than, for the most part, real games. After all, the major leagues charge huge sums of money for access. Games don’t have an extended shelf life like a valuable library of content does. (Very few people would return to an old hockey game beyond the broadcast week.) And many of Netflix’s competitors have already claimed that audience: Amazon won the streaming rights to Thursday Night FootballApple is the new home for Friday Night Baseballand Peacock has exclusive access to the English Premier League.

But even before the NFL news, Netflix had gradually dabbled in the idea of ​​becoming a true destination for sports fans. News of these Christmas Day matches follows a series of small moves in the live sports space: a golf tournament, a tennis event, a deal to make Netflix the new home of WWE. Raw, and an upcoming commercial boxing match pitting Mike Tyson against YouTuber Jake Paul (which feels like an explicit challenge to cable’s legacy pay-per-view model). By striking a deal with the NFL, America’s most-watched and highest-grossing sports league, Netflix is ​​not splash more – he throws his hat in the ring and launches into one of the last remaining areas of television control.

It’s no mystery why Netflix would finally want to become a player in this space. Since it introduced its ad-supported plan, in which subscribers pay lower fees in exchange for the indignity of having commercial breaks interrupt their Suits marathons, advertising revenue became a significant part of the company’s finances. And nothing attracts advertisers like sporting events. Football also represents an opportunity to tap into television’s most reliable magnet (according to Nielsen, NFL games are consistently the highest-rated programs regardless of the week they air) and increase viewership. Netflix’s already solid lead in terms of subscribers. In that sense, the company doesn’t need to be the exclusive home of the NFL or even the only Christmas destination for pigskin. (Next year, Christmas falls on a Thursday, so Amazon will air a primetime game as part of its schedule. TNF package.) Football is just a feather in the company’s cap – another way for Netflix to solidify its status as an industry leader.

More worryingly, the NFL deal and the company’s overall move toward live content feel like shots fired in a larger war. They illustrate the existential threat that Netflix poses to the old power structure of television. It seems that for some time now, the objective is no longer just to compete with the networks but, ultimately, to replace them. Last summer, streaming grew to account for nearly 40% of total television hours watched in the United States. Cable companies can see the change happening. That’s why companies like Comcast are now taking an “If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em” approach, announcing streaming service bundles, like an upcoming Netflix-Peacock-Apple package, that will undercut them in the profit stream. It remains to be seen whether they adapt to current realities or whether they contribute to their own obsolescence.

The question is: what else does traditional TV have to offer viewers that they can’t get through streaming services? Namely, sports and talk shows. Netflix doesn’t need to instantly be the industry leader in live entertainment. It simply needs to gradually remove networks from the equation. If the big four – ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC – were to lose their grip on, say, a mass cultural event like the Super Bowl… well, that would be the ball game, wouldn’t it? Streaming will have won.

To be clear, the major networks remain the preferred destination for the majority of NFL programming. But by getting into the live TV game, Netflix is ​​moving closer to the monocultural monopoly it seeks. In the company’s version of a perfect world, the platform would be a one-stop shop: a hub for every movie, show, sporting event or entertainment option available. And that should scare everyone, not just the executives at NBC or HBO. It is said that when businesses compete, the consumer wins. So what happens when there is no more competition, when one company wins decisively? Aside from how this would affect the types of art and entertainment created, there is the price to consider. If you thought cable was expensive, wait until you see the price of the only game in town.