Netanyahu could be forced to choose between his government’s survival and a ceasefire deal

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Jerusalem
CNN
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may soon be forced to choose: accept a ceasefire deal with Hamas or keep his government in power.

But as he faces this choice, Netanyahu is also looking for a way to avoid it altogether.

For months, Netanyahu carefully balanced these competing imperatives by refusing to even consider a permanent ceasefire, blaming Hamas’s “illusory demands” for the failure of previous rounds of negotiations. But after US President Joe Biden publicly outlined Israel’s latest ceasefire proposal on Friday – one that could lead to a permanent truce and which Hamas may be willing to accept – Netanyahu is now out of time .

“I think Bibi is now stuck,” said Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu adviser, using the prime minister’s nickname. Biden “forces Bibi to take off his mask and say, ‘OK, now it’s money time.’ Are you in favor of a deal?’” he said.

As Israel awaits Hamas’ response to the latest proposal, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and other far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition are already threatening to withdraw from the government and cause its collapse if the Prime Minister follows up.

Amid the chorus of threats from his right flank, Netanyahu is trying to reframe the latest ceasefire proposal, insisting to Ben Gvir and others that the terms of the deal do not match those that Biden defined them. While Biden has framed the proposal squarely as a way to end the war, Netanyahu insists that Israel will not end the war until Hamas is eliminated.

His efforts to convince far-right ministers to avoid choosing between a ceasefire deal and the survival of his government have so far failed. Ben Gvir said Monday that Netanyahu’s office had refused to follow through on his commitment to show him the draft proposal, leaving him convinced the prime minister had something to hide.

If Ben Gvir or Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich do not renounce their threats to leave the government, Netanyahu will be back to the binary choice that is beginning to materialize before his eyes.

Opposition leader Yair Lapid has proposed providing a “safety net” to keep the government in power to reach a ceasefire deal, but it would also give Lapid the keys to force early elections once the agreement is implemented.

As has been the case over the past eight months, Netanyahu’s political survival may depend on the continuation of the war and his elusive quest for total victory over Hamas.

Netanyahu faces the choice between the survival of his government and a hostage deal at a time when his political fortunes are beginning to improve. For the first time this year, Netanyahu edged out his main political rival Benny Gantz as Israelis’ preferred choice for prime minister, between 36 and 30 percent, according to a Channel 12 poll last week.

And some recent polls show that Gantz’s National Unity party is struggling, while Netanyahu’s Likud is making modest progress. National Unity would still win a plurality of seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, but the party’s 19-seat advantage over Likud in December fell to four seats in last week’s Channel 12 poll.

The improvement in Netanyahu’s political standing coincided with a wave of international condemnation of Israel’s war effort in Gaza and with the International Criminal Court’s decision to seek an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, all of which positioned Netanyahu domestically as Israel’s defender, a familiar and comfortable role for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. Meanwhile, Gantz’s threat to leave the war cabinet over Netanyahu’s lack of long-term strategy in Gaza appears to be the cause of his declining support.

According to a poll conducted Monday by Israel’s Channel 11, Israeli public support for the ceasefire deal currently on the table stands at 40 percent, with 27 percent opposed and 33 percent unsure.

But if Netanyahu is now wondering whether there are more benefits to continuing the war than reaching a ceasefire agreement, Biden’s speech last week not only forced Netanyahu to confront This choice – it was also intended to counter the pressure Netanyahu now faces to give up. the proposal of his own government.

“I know there are those in Israel who will disagree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely. Some are even part of the governing coalition,” Biden said. “Well, I urged Israeli leaders to support this deal, regardless of pressure. »

But a key question remains: Will Hamas force Netanyahu to make the choice he faces today? Or will Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, offer Netanyahu an escape of his own accord?

Hamas said it viewed Biden’s speech on the latest Israeli proposal “positively”, but has not yet submitted its official response.

Although the latest proposal makes important concessions to close the gap with Hamas’s demands – including providing a clear path to a permanent ceasefire – it still falls short of meeting all demands.

It allows an initial ceasefire period of six weeks to be extended as long as the parties must negotiate a permanent truce that includes the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza in a second phase of the agreement. But this does not require Israel to immediately commit to a permanent ceasefire.

Hamas’s refusal to compromise on this and sign this agreement could allow Netanyahu to get off the hook and plunge Gaza into many more months of war.

The title of this story has been updated.