President Biden, who has defended Israel’s right to wage war against Hamas and criticized Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict, is sick with Covid and in a political freefall. Israeli officials said they had not confirmed that the prime minister would actually meet with the recovering president as planned until the day before takeoff; and they were unsure whether Biden would still be running for reelection by the time they left town.
“Nobody knows what to expect,” an Israeli official said Saturday, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
Mr Netanyahu is due to address the US Congress on Wednesday. But it is the turmoil in the presidential race that is capturing observers’ attention, with Biden under increasing pressure to step down and Donald Trump poised to take over after a failed assassination attempt. The shifting political winds could embolden the Israeli leader, analysts say, at a crucial time in Gaza ceasefire negotiations.
U.S.-brokered talks in Cairo are intensifying, with the administration pressuring a reluctant Netanyahu to accept a deal that would end the fighting in exchange for the release of more than 100 Israeli hostages held by militants. Dozens of the captives are believed to still be alive, Israeli officials say.
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Netanyahu has been accused by his critics of prolonging the war for his own political gain, a charge he denies. He remains adamant that Israel must fight until Hamas is destroyed, a goal his own generals consider unachievable.
Officially, Netanyahu is neutral in American politics. But he has long been criticized for his alignment with Republicans. And he has never hidden his enthusiasm for Trump, who shifted American policy significantly in favor of the Israeli right during his time in office — moving the American embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights.
The strained relationship between Netanyahu and Biden has deteriorated sharply in recent months as Israel has defied repeated White House demands to increase the flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza and do more to protect civilians. The administration in May suspended shipments of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, citing their use in populated areas.
More than 38,900 Palestinians have been killed in the war, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians but says the majority of the dead are women and children.
Some of the prime minister’s allies have begun applauding Trump more explicitly, casting the ceasefire negotiations as a partisan issue for the United States. Itamar Ben Gvir, Netanyahu’s far-right national security minister, warned his colleagues last week that approving a hostage deal would be “a slap in the face for Trump, which would be a victory for Biden,” according to Israeli media. Any deal, he insisted, would have to wait until November.
Some political observers say the erosion of Biden’s position is already freeing Netanyahu’s hands in Gaza.
Michael Oren, Israel’s former ambassador to Washington, said U.S. pressure on Israel to rein in its military campaign had eased in recent weeks. The administration has made little public criticism of the escalating attacks in civilian areas, including Mawasi, an area designated by Israel as a humanitarian zone. Massive strikes last week against senior Hamas leader Mohammed Deif killed at least 90 people, health officials said.
“The pressure is off now,” Oren said. “It’s not like it used to be.”
Biden’s team backed down in part because of signs that the attacks are making Hamas more willing to agree, Oren said, and what the president “really needs is a diplomatic victory to show that he can achieve great things internationally.”
U.S. administration officials deny that Netanyahu has been emboldened by Biden’s difficulties. They acknowledge, however, that the president’s growing troubles have coincided with a hardening of the prime minister’s position. Netanyahu has recently made last-minute demands that U.S. negotiators say could thwart the Cairo talks, according to diplomats familiar with the discussions.
Under the new terms, Israel will not agree to withdraw its forces from the Philadelphia Corridor along the Egyptian border, said the diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity about the sensitive and ongoing negotiations. Israel will also not allow unrestricted access to Gazans seeking to return to their homes in the north, insisting that its forces be allowed to set up checkpoints to monitor the movements of the displaced.
“The fact that Netanyahu has set these conditions so publicly means he feels more confident,” Oren said.
Netanyahu is certainly paying attention to the U.S. election campaign, Israeli officials say. “Everyone recognizes that Biden is weak,” said a person familiar with the deliberations in the prime minister’s office, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters.
But Netanyahu was far more focused on his own political challenges, this person said.
The Israeli prime minister is caught between a public increasingly angry at his failure to reach a deal on the release of the hostages and his far-right coalition partners, who are threatening to overthrow the government if he agrees to stop fighting Hamas. Eight members of Netanyahu’s Likud party have in recent days released a list of “red lines” they would not support in a deal, including an Israeli withdrawal from central Gaza and the Egyptian border.
Netanyahu will work hard to keep his coalition partners in line until July 28, when the Israeli parliament begins a three-month recess.
“The next few weeks will be crucial,” the person familiar with the deliberations said. “Right now, the pressure from within is much greater than from the United States.”
Netanyahu is unlikely to seek meetings with Trump during his trip to Washington, the source said, or even with Vice President Harris, who has emerged as a possible replacement for Biden at the top of the ticket.
The prime minister was fully aware that regardless of the outcome of the November elections, Israel would be dealing with Biden for the foreseeable future, said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute.
Netanyahu is expected to be as bipartisan as possible during the visit, unlike his controversial speech to Congress in 2015, when, at the invitation of Republicans, he criticized the Obama administration’s Iran nuclear deal. Unlike today, that clash came just weeks before an Israeli election and was intended to have a domestic political impact, Plesner noted.
“The situation is totally different today,” he said. “Netanyahu needs President Biden every day.”
While many Democrats remain bitter about Netanyahu’s 2015 trip, and dozens plan to boycott his speech, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday that he had gotten a “general overview” of Netanyahu’s speech last week and that it did not seem partisan in tone, focusing instead on “how the United States and Israel are working together to confront the threat of terrorism” and coordinate on “regional challenges.”
Sullivan acknowledged, however, that they “will continue to work on this speech until the very last minute, just as we are doing on our side.”
Mr. Netanyahu will be in Washington at the height of partisan frenzy, between two party conventions and as Democrats grapple with turbulence on their ticket. U.S. officials have said they are nervous about his visit at such a volatile time, fearing he might say or do something that could derail their diplomacy in Gaza.
“There is no way to have confidence in how this is going to play out,” one U.S. official said.
Hudson reported from Washington.
