Net migration feared to reach 997,000

Ministers are bracing for immigration to hit one million when new figures are released today.

The long-awaited statistics are set to show another huge spike in net migration in 2022, likely over 700,000, after the year to June saw a record high of 504,000.

The level is expected to spark a furious political row over the Tory manifesto’s promise that “the numbers will come down” from 226,000 in 2019.

Under David Cameron and Theresa May there was a commitment to increase long-term net migration figures into the tens of thousands, and one of the selling points of Brexit was to “take back control” of borders.

MPs have demanded action from Rishi Sunak, with the fallout highlighted in a poll finding Labor more trusted on immigration.

The Prime Minister highlighted the massive influx of refugees from Afghanistan, Ukraine and Hong, and focused on his vow to curb illegal immigration by “stopping the boats” crossing the Sleeve.

The government sought to avoid a backlash earlier this week by announcing that most foreign students would not be allowed to bring dependents with them.

But Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s allies have made it clear she wants more drastic measures and have faced resistance from Cabinet colleagues worried about hurting the economy.

Total net migration – the difference between the number of people moving into the UK and the number of people leaving the country – in the 12 months to June 2022 was around 504,000

Figures from the Office for National Statistics will cover the 12 months ending in December 2022. They estimate the level of net migration – the balance between inflows and outflows – for those who intend to stay in the country for at least a year.

Analysis by the Center for Policy Studies suggests the number would have been between 700,000 and 997,000 during this period.

Separate data from the Home Office is expected to show high inflows have continued, with almost a million migrants allowed to come to Britain to work or study in the year to March.

The ONS estimated net migration at 504,000 in the year to June, compared with 173,000 in the year to June 2021.

The rise was driven by a series of “unprecedented global events”, according to the ONS, including the war in Ukraine, the end of the Covid-19 lockdown restrictions, the resettlement of Afghan refugees, the new visa route for British nationals from Hong Kong and students arriving from outside the European Union.

Mr Sunak has vowed to act to reduce net migration, telling reporters on a recent trip to Japan that he wanted to be ‘clearly clear’ with the public that ‘the numbers are too high’ and that he wants “bring them down”.

On Tuesday, the government announced that overseas students would be banned from bringing dependents to the UK from January 2024.

The change will not apply to those taking postgraduate research programs.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has pledged action to reduce net migration, telling reporters on a recent trip to Japan that he wanted to be “crystal clear” with the public that “the numbers are too high” and that he wants to “bring them down”.

Mr Sunak said it was ‘the biggest step ever to tackle legal migration, removing the right for international students to bring dependants, toughening rules on post-study work and revising maintenance requirements”.

Meanwhile, the Labor Party unveiled immigration plans under which companies would be prevented from addressing staff shortages by hiring cheaper foreign workers.

At PMQs yesterday, Sir Keir Starmer told the Commons: ‘The Prime Minister has stood on three Tory manifestos, each promising to cut immigration.’ Every broken promise.

“This mess on immigration reveals a Tory party with no ambition for workers and no ambition for Britain, just the same old failed ideas – low wages and high taxes.”

Mr Sunak questioned Labor’s contribution, saying: ‘There is absolutely no idea…absolutely no semblance that there would be any scrutiny.’ For what? Because he believes in an open door migration policy.

A new poll has found Labor more trustworthy than the Tories on immigration.

After an increase in public confidence in the Conservatives’ immigration, asylum and small boat policies in March, the Ipsos survey conducted between May 16 and 18 found that confidence had fallen again, Labor being in the lead on all three issues.

Some 38% of those polled trusted Labor to have the right policies on immigration and asylum seekers, and 37% trusted the party to handle the issue of small boats crossing the Channel.

Only 29% said the same of the Conservatives on immigration, with 28% trusting them on asylum policy and 27% trusting them on small boats.

But there was also widespread pessimism about both parties’ immigration and asylum policies, with 50% saying they don’t trust Labor and more than 60% saying they don’t trust the Conservatives.